AGP Executive Report

Venezuela Energy Shock: The U.S.-Venezuela oil deal is drawing heavy scrutiny as experts and lawyers question contract transparency and feasibility, with reports saying the U.S. would gain majority control of 65B barrels of proven reserves via a 25-year structure—yet production gains may take years and terms remain unclear. Investor Risk Watch: Analysts warn the arrangement won’t quickly fix supply, while opposition figures stress Venezuela’s role in energy security but also push for restored democracy and transparent elections. Trade & Geopolitics: U.S. Treasury chief Scott Bessent is urging G20 countries to rethink trade terms with China, arguing the export surplus is unsustainable and may require broader trade barriers. Latin America Finance & Tech: Brazil is stepping up online safety enforcement, including a lawsuit seeking damages from Discord, as regulators refine age-assurance rules. Corporate/Capital Markets: SmartFit plans to lean on TotalPass and TotalPass-like ecosystems as gym markets show signs of oversupply in parts of Brazil. Infrastructure & Logistics: ICTSI’s Manzanillo terminal in Mexico got approval to handle ultra-large container ships up to 15.5m draft, boosting capacity for global trade flows.

Venezuela Oil Deal Fallout: U.S. and Venezuela’s interim leadership struck a landmark pact giving Washington majority control of about 65 billion barrels of crude, but lawyers and energy experts are flagging legal, process, and transparency questions as political backlash grows inside Venezuela. G20 Trade Pressure: U.S. Treasury chief Scott Bessent urged G20 members to reassess trade terms with China to curb imbalances, drawing criticism that it could turn market issues into politics. Chile Mining M&A: Capstone Copper completed its acquisition of San Pietro copper assets in Chile’s Atacama, boosting its district-scale footprint and mineral inventory. Brazil Energy Storage Push: Jinko ESS teamed with UCB Power to assemble BESS in Brazil for upcoming local-content auctions, aiming to scale participation in the first capacity reserve tender. India–Brazil Pharma Talks: India called for more predictable Brazil regulatory pathways to expand market access for Indian pharma, while both sides moved to broaden India–Mercosur trade terms. Corporate Finance (LATAM-linked): CAP S.A. in Chile launched a cash tender offer and consent solicitation for its 7.375% notes due 2036, signaling active balance-sheet management. Hospitality Investment: Highgate set up a Greece vehicle but highlights its broader global push, including Latin America exposure.

Venezuela–US Oil Deal: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez pushed back on backlash over a 25-year pact that gives the US majority control of output tied to 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, while insisting Caracas retains ownership and sovereignty; unresolved terms still leave investors watching financing, private operators, and how the deal fits Venezuela’s legal framework. Colombia Fiscal Stress: Colombia’s 2026–27 budget points to a deeper deficit than expected, with analysts warning the government may need multilateral support, potentially including the IMF, as debt risks climb. China Trade Pressure at the G20: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged G20 finance ministers to revisit trade terms with China to shrink a record $1.2 trillion surplus, arguing China’s export model is driving global imbalances—Latin America is named as a key diversion outlet. Stablecoin Payments: Stablecoin-linked card spending topped $10.9B globally, with July hitting a record $1B+ month, signaling faster mainstreaming of crypto rails via Visa-style networks. Puerto Rico Fintech: A look at how Puerto Rico’s payments ecosystem blends US banking rails with local behavior (ATH Móvil), as fintech becomes part of the island’s post-debt-crisis transition. Venezuela Oil Market Spillover: Separate coverage frames the deal as potentially reshaping global oil markets and US pricing, but notes political and investment hurdles. Cuba–China Retail JV: SUMAI’s first China container arrives in Holguín as renovations advance on a new market aimed at dollar-accessible trade. Latin America Tech & AI: Reporting highlights growing Chinese tech presence across the region, raising digital sovereignty and cybersecurity concerns.

Stablecoin Payments: Cumulative stablecoin card spending has topped $10.9B worldwide, with July 2026 hitting a record $1B+ month as Visa expands stablecoin-linked card access. M&A in Metals: Boliden agreed to buy Votorantim’s 64.68% stake in Nexa Resources for about $1.31B, aiming to build a larger zinc-silver platform across Brazil and Peru. Venezuela Oil Deal: Trump says the US secured majority control of 65B barrels of Venezuelan proven reserves via 17 fields, but details remain thin and critics call it a sovereignty and pricing risk. Argentina Trade & Pharma: Argentina will ease barriers to help Indian pharma firms enter, including upgrading India’s status in its regulatory framework. Colombia Politics: Commentary frames Colombia’s election as a crossroads or a swing back toward the status quo, with policy direction still up for debate. Tech & Credit: A Philippines fintech uses AI to read messy loan documents and follow up for missing info, targeting lender backlogs and data gaps. E-commerce Watch: Multiple takes compare MercadoLibre’s Latin dominance with global rivals, keeping investor attention on payments-led growth.

Venezuela Oil Deal: Trump says the U.S. has secured “majority control” of Venezuela’s oil reserves tied to 65 billion barrels across 17 strategic fields, with private partners set to extract—sparking backlash over “colonial” optics and gas-price expectations. Mexico Energy Transition: Mexico’s green push is accelerating under Sheinbaum’s energy reform, aiming for 32+ GW of new capacity by 2030 with renewables at least 70% of the mix, backed by solar and wind project approvals. Argentina Electoral Reform: Argentina’s Chamber approved Central Bank reform while the Senate moved ahead on judicial appointments as Milei advances 2027 election changes, including “Ficha Limpia” and biometric endorsement rules. Water + Data Centers: A new focus on water scarcity is colliding with data-center expansion, with investors facing rising scrutiny over cooling water needs and disclosure demands. Renewables Financing (Central America/Caribbean): IRENA is inviting renewable project proposals for potential support via its Climate Investment Platform and Energy Transition Accelerator Financing. AI Labor Exposure (Argentina): A study flags Argentina—especially Buenos Aires—as highly exposed to GenAI’s job impact, driven by urban, service-sector employment.

Venezuela Energy Deal: Trump says the U.S. has negotiated access to 65+ billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves, pitching it as a way to boost American supply and attract nearly $100bn in private investment. US Sanctions & Iran: New U.S. measures target Iran’s oil and financial intermediaries, aiming to raise pressure beyond officials and entities. Mexico Growth: INEGI reports Mexico’s Q2 GDP rose 1.4% and 1.5% for the quarter, but inflation concerns remain. Argentina Pharma Access: Argentina commits to cut barriers to let Indian pharma firms enter more easily, including upgrading India’s regulatory status. Guyana Investment Outlook: The IDB flags Guyana’s 2026 growth at 16.2% and urges prudent use of oil revenues to fund infrastructure and services. Co-op Finance Snapshot: WOCCU reports 420m members and $3.98tn in assets across 93 countries, highlighting credit unions’ scale in Latin America. Halal Trade Push: Malaysia’s HDC leads 15 halal exporters to Brazil as halal exports to Brazil rise to about RM860.45m in 2025. El Salvador Tourism Boom: El Salvador’s safety gains are driving a major travel surge and tourism-led spending growth.

Venezuela Oil Deal: Trump says the U.S. has struck a deal to secure a stake in Venezuela’s 65 billion barrels of reserves, with talks involving the Pentagon and potential control over as many as 17 oil fields—raising fresh questions for LatAm energy flows and investment risk. Biotech Expansion: Argentina’s Biosidus finished a $12.9m biomanufacturing expansion, tripling cell culture capacity to support its biosimilar pipeline and international partnerships. Guyana Growth Outlook: The IDB flags Guyana as a standout, projecting 16.2% growth in 2026 as oil revenues create fiscal space for infrastructure, health, education and housing. Colombia Deportation Backlash: Colombia’s new president faces criticism over an “inhumane” deportation push targeting irregular migrants, mainly Venezuelans. Argentina Household Credit Stress: A report says delinquency on Argentine household debt has hit the worst levels since 2001, with bank loan arrears rising to 12.8% and digital lending delinquency to 30.1%. Cloud & Data Rules: Alibaba Cloud launches its first South American region in Brazil, but the move spotlights the compliance gap between LGPD expectations and China’s intelligence-law framework. Critical Minerals Pact: Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru sign a strategic minerals cooperation pact to reduce reliance on Chinese processing and coordinate supply chains. MLB Age-Fraud Case: MLB suspends a Dominican prospect after an identity and age-fraud scheme involving falsified records and a staged death/gravesite.

Cross-Border Payments: dLocal launched dMoRe, a merchant-of-record solution aimed at cutting market-entry friction for global firms in regulated emerging markets, shrinking timelines from up to a year to about 8 weeks. Cloud & Data Centers: Alibaba Cloud is entering Brazil’s cloud market with two São Paulo data centers, partnering locally as corporate cloud infrastructure spending surges. Ride-Hailing Expansion: Didi plans to invest $200M+ in Argentina in 2026 to push into smaller cities and add safety tech, targeting 500,000+ drivers. Energy Storage Outlook: Wood Mackenzie raised its Latin America battery storage forecast to 34 GW by 2035, warning deployment can stall without clear remuneration rules. Critical Minerals Finance: POSCO secured a $700M IDB Invest credit line for Argentina lithium operations, as legal disputes and contractor allegations swirl. Stablecoins & Payments: Bridge’s founder says stablecoin demand is booming outside the U.S., and the next growth wave could be tokenized local currencies. Trading Ecosystem: iFX EXPO LATAM rebrands as The Trading Festival Mexico 2026, expanding beyond a B2B show into a broader fintech and trading community. Geopolitics & Resources: ECLAC urges Latin America to avoid picking sides in the U.S.-China rivalry, leveraging resource wealth for flexible alliances.

Peru-U.S. Security Push: Peru’s new president Keiko Fujimori signals “very significant space” to deepen cooperation with Washington on anti-cartel efforts, including possible alignment with the Shield of the Americas. Colombia’s Crime Crackdown: Colombia’s new directive orders security forces to treat multiple criminal groups under a single “terrorists” label, aiming to tighten judicial and financial prosecution. Brazil Macro: Brazil’s July current account deficit widened to a 7-year high, adding pressure to the country’s external balance. Fintech Growth: Chilean remittance/transfer platform Global66 says it mobilized over US$3.5B in H1 2026 across eight countries, doubling volume year-on-year. Banking & Payments Tech: Striim and Infomedia partner to help LATAM enterprises modernize Oracle-based data systems with real-time streaming. Oil & Risk: Schlumberger (SLB) reportedly secured access to Venezuela’s oilfield data and is discussing potential rig reactivations, despite PDVSA’s past payment defaults. Health Regulation (Brazil): Knight Therapeutics filed a supplemental ANVISA submission to expand MINJUVI® (tafasitamab) as first-line therapy in Brazil under Project Orbis. Agriculture & Credit: Brazil’s irrigation demand is rising, but farmers face tight credit and squeezed margins, slowing project deals. Education & Social Spending (El Salvador): Bukele announced 50,000 scholarships for public high-school graduates, expanding university, technical and vocational options.

Telecom Competition Push (Dominican Republic): President Luis Abinader backed new telecom competitors, arguing the sector is effectively a duopoly (about 95% market control) with prices ~22% above the Latin America average—aiming to spur investment, better service, and lower consumer costs. AI & Fintech Expansion (Latin America): Blend expanded into Brazil to move enterprise AI from pilots to production, while Ant International’s embedded-credit push entered Brazil to serve SMBs and gig workers; UiPath said Banco Azteca scaled orchestration across thousands of processes. Banking Infrastructure (Mexico): Banco Azteca’s automation upgrade highlights how banks are modernizing operations and governance at scale. Energy Storage Financing (Poland/Europe): Greenvolt secured €153m bridge facilities plus a €65m guarantee from UniCredit for large BESS projects—relevant for regional grid-flexibility investment trends. Ports & Trade Links (Ecuador): DP World launched a new AX4 direct Asia service at Posorja to cut reliance on transshipment and improve transit times for exporters. Market Access & Growth (Panama): New research and rankings keep positioning Panama as a top investment migration and regional business gateway. Capital Markets (Chile/Argentina): Astra Exploration upgraded to OTCQX Best Market, boosting visibility for U.S. investors.

Monetary Policy Watch: Colombia’s central bank chief Leonardo Villar says inflation is on track to near the 3% target by mid-2028, but warns demand is outpacing production and fiscal deterioration makes the job harder. Fiscal Risk: In the same debate, Colombia’s finance vice-minister said it’s not feasible to quickly return to the fiscal rule after a 2025 suspension. Brazil Debt Dynamics: Brazil’s Treasury flagged a worsening public-debt profile, with Selic-linked debt projected to hit a record 53% this year as floating-rate exposure rises. Cybersecurity & Defense: EDGE and Brazil’s Army will set up a Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence under a tripartite government-industry-academia model, aiming to boost sovereign cyber capacity. Regulation & Data: Brazil fined TikTok’s parent ByteDance for serious LGPD breaches involving children’s data, including weak age checks and continued processing via “guest sessions.” Venezuela Currency Debate: Opposition lawmaker Antonio Ecarri backed a dollarization plan advised by US economist Steve Hanke, targeting devaluation and wage erosion. Energy/Water Infrastructure: Baja California allocated 1.6bn pesos for desalination project interconnections to supply treated water to the Tijuana-Rosarito-Ensenada region. Investment/Markets: WHG is creating a local equities unit inside its asset management arm to attract talent and position for the next cycle.

LatAm Banking & Capital Markets: Scotiabank beat estimates on capital markets and its international unit, adding to the week’s signals that deal activity and wealth management are holding up despite volatility. FX & Rates Watch: The “super peso” is back—and it’s starting to hurt, a reminder that currency strength can squeeze exporters and complicate inflation and rate expectations. Energy & Infrastructure: Halliburton won an integrated contract from bp for the first appraisal campaign in Brazil’s deepwater Bumerangue field, while AngloGold Ashanti restarted a Brazilian plant to process all local gold concentrate domestically, supported by 105m reais in investment. Payments & Fintech: Miracle Pay partnered with zerohash to let U.S. merchants accept stablecoin payments, pointing to faster on-chain settlement moving into mainstream commerce. AI in Health (LMIC focus): Qure.ai named Mihir Bhanushali EVP, Global Health, to expand AI healthcare across Africa and Latin America, targeting TB/HIV and frontline delivery. Retail Expansion: H&M appointed a general manager for its Argentina entry, with the first store planned for 2027.

Public Health Overhaul: Dominican Republic’s National Health Service chief launched a maternity-hospital tour, demanding “zero tolerance” for preventable maternal and infant deaths and tighter emergency protocols. Port Decarbonization: Peru’s Port of Callao became the first in South America to offer shore power (“cold ironing”), cutting CO2 and port-city air pollution, backed by DP World’s major infrastructure push. Airline Financing: LATAM secured $505m financing for 11 aircraft deliveries (A320neo, A321neo and E195-E2), with sustainability-linked terms tied to emissions intensity. Trade & Policy: Mexico’s top diplomat said Mexico is committed to restarting stalled FTA talks with South Korea, with AI and space cooperation on the agenda. Currency Watch: Reuters reports Mexico’s “super peso” has surged past 17 per dollar, boosting returns but squeezing exporter margins. Agrifood Investment Push: FAO urged stronger, coordinated agrifood-system investment across Latin America and the Caribbean, citing hunger and limited access to formal finance. Media & Sports Spending: Prime Video plans to invest over $2bn in Latin America from 2027-2030, expanding local originals and NBA and other live sports rights. Energy & Sovereign Risk: Venezuela oil output hit 1.23m bpd, the highest since 2019, after easing U.S. sanctions and legal reforms opening the sector to private investment.

Banking & Markets: Mexico’s sovereign debt is trading “like junk” after a Pemex bailout push of about $130B, with Moody’s pressure keeping the country near speculative-grade territory and raising the stakes for investors. Energy Finance: JPMorgan and Santander are set to lead a fundraising drive for Argentina LNG that could reach $15B, with a final investment decision targeted for November as the project eyes Vaca Muerta gas. Oil & Risk: Shell has paused its Aphrodite offshore gas project in Trinidad after talks with the national gas company stalled on commercial terms, a setback for the country’s LNG and petrochem plans. Digital Assets & Capital Markets: Franklin Templeton expanded access to its tokenized U.S. government liquidity fund in Asia via HashKey Exchange in Hong Kong for professional investors. Macro & Reconstruction: ECLAC says earthquake reconstruction in Venezuela and Colombia could provide a modest lift in 2027, but financing and project execution will decide how much. Payments Innovation: Stablecoin card spending topped $1B in July and could hit $50B annually by 2028, driven by broader adoption and cross-border use. Trade & Investment: Hong Kong-Peru’s free trade agreement is set to enter into force on September 1, covering goods, services, investment and e-commerce. Infrastructure & Telecom: SES remains bullish on DTH renewals into the next decade, even as streaming reshapes demand patterns.

Energy & LNG: Shell has cancelled its Aphrodite offshore gas project in Trinidad after negotiations with the state gas aggregator, NGC, failed on commercial terms—Shell is releasing a contracted jack-up rig, a setback for Trinidad’s push to reverse declining gas output that has weighed on LNG exports and petrochemicals. Media & AI Copyright: Argentina’s Editorial Perfil has sued OpenAI and Microsoft, alleging unauthorized use of its journalism to train AI systems and seeking accountability for copyright infringement and unfair competition. Digital Payments & Crypto Rails: Chilean startup Kapso raised $1.4M to make it easier for developers to integrate the official WhatsApp Business API across Latin America, while Paybis expanded local crypto payment methods including Brazil’s PIX and Chile’s Webpay. Public Finance & Health: Barbados plans a $1.2B debt-for-social swap to fund non-communicable disease programs, including childhood obesity. Connectivity & Education (El Salvador): El Salvador is boosting education spending to $3B (over 8% of GDP) and moving ahead on its first submarine fiber cable feasibility/design work to expand bandwidth. Policy & Regulation (Plastic): A leaked U.S. memo says Washington will oppose global plastic production limits at UN treaty talks, arguing for national security carve-outs and stronger waste-management focus. Banking/Markets: A Fireblocks survey finds most financial institutions are funding digital-asset initiatives, but only about 16% have anything live in production.

Dominican Republic FDI Outlook: Central Bank governor Héctor Valdez Albizu expects foreign direct investment to hit $5.3B in 2026, after $3.27B in the first half, citing stronger tourism, remittances, exports and a firmer peso. Public Debt Watch (Bahamian MOF): The Bahamas’ Ministry of Finance reported outstanding public sector debt at $14.7B at end-June, up $1.2B year-on-year, with central government debt rising and external creditor exposure increasing. IDB x Japan Financing Boost: The IDB Group and JICA expanded their partnership to $14B in financing for Latin America and the Caribbean, adding focus on critical minerals and agriculture plus health support. Corporate Moves in Brazil: Volaris Group agreed to acquire L5 Networks, expanding cloud communications and recurring-revenue capabilities in Brazil. Americas Logistics Leadership: ECS Group appointed Eric St Amand as COO Americas to oversee operations across North America, Latin America and the Caribbean. Tech + Infrastructure (Chile/Antarctica): Chile finalized a feasibility study for an Antarctica fiber-optic cable, backed by CAF and China’s MCDF, aiming for real-time scientific data. AI Governance Risk: A Chromatics AI report warns Western cultural bias in AI could shape how billions interpret the world, especially in education and legal guidance.