AGP Executive Report

Corporate Finance: GeoPark launched a cash offer for all $441.7 million of its 8.75% notes due 2030, offering $1,027.50 per $1,000 of principal. Payments & Digital Finance: J.P. Morgan Payments will support Mercado Libre’s cross-border seller payouts across six Latin American markets. Circle, meanwhile, plans to enter about 40 emerging markets, including in Latin America, as stablecoin use grows. Regional Outlook: The IMF is urging Latin America to reduce debt and raise productivity, while it cut the region’s growth outlook to 2.3% and Argentina’s to 2.1%. Argentina has also paused local dollar-bond sales as a debt wall approaches. Investment Flows: Uruguay-based Scanntech raised $180 million to fund international expansion. Pacific Asset Management has opened a Uruguay arm after raising more than $100 million from regional investors.

Argentina Debt: Buenos Aires has paused local dollar-bond sales as yields top 12%, leaving it to plan around roughly $25 billion in hard-currency payments next year. Officials may turn to a China currency swap if borrowing costs stay high. Investor Outreach: President Javier Milei is meeting investors in Washington and backing Donald Trump ahead of the U.S. midterms, underscoring the political ties behind Argentina’s bid to attract capital. Private Capital: Uruguay’s Scanntech raised $180 million in a deal led by L Catterton, with Bradesco and Partners Group participating; the new investors are set to hold about 30% of the retail-data company. Mining Finance: Trafigura’s $16.4 million convertible debenture gives Ecuador-focused Atico Mining funds to settle liabilities and prepare its La Plata project for construction. Argentine startup Giraffe Bio also raised $6.4 million to scale its copper-recovery technology. Financial Reputation: The EU removed Panama from its tax-haven blacklist, citing transparency reforms made since the Panama Papers revelations. Debt Risks: G24 chair Taiwo Oyedele warned that high borrowing costs are deepening pressure on developing economies and urged more affordable financing.

Regional Fintech: Uruguay’s Scanntech raised $180 million to expand its retail-data platform and AI tools across Latin America. PPRO is also extending its Damisa partnership, using regulated stablecoins for faster cross-border settlement, while XTransfer registered in Chile to serve local exporters. Investment Flows: Wealth adviser iCapital plans to expand in Latin America and aims to reach €8 billion in advised assets by 2030. Jupiter reported £300 million in regional inflows in the third quarter, lifting Latin American assets under management by 10%. Brazil Watch: The Oct. 25 runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is sharpening investor concerns over policy shifts, currency volatility and the business climate. Business Ties: Cyprus and Brazil formed a joint council to promote investment and partnerships, including access to European and Middle Eastern markets for Brazilian firms.

Regional Outlook: The IMF trimmed Latin America’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.3% and cut Argentina’s to 2.1%. Brazil is projected to grow 2.2% this year, down from the IMF’s prior 2.4% estimate, with high interest rates weighing on activity. Venezuela: The U.S. lifted sanctions on National Assembly head Jorge Rodríguez amid energy agreements and talks with Caracas, a further sign of shifting ties. Investment: The IDB Group and Italy plan a facility to mobilize investment across Latin America and the Caribbean. Fintech: PayJoy acquired selected assets of Mexico’s Finia AI to expand AI-based lending tools for small businesses with limited credit histories. Brazil Infrastructure: Data-center projects are spreading beyond São Paulo as demand rises, but power supply and grid upgrades remain key constraints. Retail Growth: Dollarama says its Latin American unit has 781 stores; Dollarcity’s second-quarter net earnings rose 30.3%, supporting expansion in Mexico.

Digital Finance: Tether invested in EFY Finance to expand stablecoin use in Latin America, while Decaf opened U.S. dollar accounts to eligible businesses outside the U.S., using OwlPay’s regulated payment infrastructure. Investment: Yield Lab launched a Brazil-focused fund, targeting opportunities in the country’s startup and agriculture sectors. Energy: Mexico’s mixed investment scheme is drawing interest from clean-energy investors, while Guyana is weighing a smaller LNG project as ExxonMobil forecasts more gas will be needed to support oil production. Economic Outlook: The IMF cut its 2026 growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.3% and lowered Argentina’s to 2.1%, citing energy pressures.

Regional Outlook: The IMF cut Latin America and the Caribbean’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.3%, citing an energy shock and limited AI gains. Argentina’s forecast fell to 2.1%; Colombia is projected to grow 2.2%. Brazil Markets: Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly led Lula in the first-round presidential vote. The real rose 4.2% and the São Paulo exchange nearly 8% as investors bet on spending cuts ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff. Guyana Energy: Exxon says it needs more offshore gas to support oil output, putting a planned LNG project at risk of shrinking from 6 million to as little as 3 million tonnes a year. Investment: Yield Lab is targeting R$200 million for a Brazil-focused agtech fund, while a $844 million port project in Peru has drawn interest from Indian, U.S. and Chinese investors. Digital Finance: Tether invested in EFY Finance to expand stablecoin use in Latin America. Copper: Strikes at Chile’s major mines threaten production, adding pressure to global supply.

Growth Outlook: The IMF cut its 2026 Latin America and Caribbean growth forecast to 2.3%, trimming Argentina’s outlook sharply to 2.1% as weak demand and tight financial conditions weigh. Chile and Uruguay also face downgrades. Debt Costs: G24 leaders say developing countries pay about $500 billion more in debt costs than advanced economies and are urging the IMF and World Bank to offer cheaper financing. Currency Watch: Ecuador’s dollarization endured a decade of opposition under Rafael Correa, a case with lessons for regional debates over replacing local currencies with the U.S. dollar. Mining Investment: Chile- and Argentina-based Giraffe Bio raised $6.4 million to scale technology for copper recovery; separately, Mineros lifted its 2026 gold production guidance after strong third-quarter output. Energy and Deals: A new alliance between Chilean miner LATAM Investment Group and Motjuan begins with a 3,000-tonne copper concentrate pilot, backed by trade-finance expertise. In Peru, investors from India, the U.S. and China are eyeing an $844 million port project.

Venezuela Oil: Colombian billionaire Jaime Gilinski is poised to become GeoPark’s majority owner through a stake initially valued at about $515 million, exchanged for rights to develop a major Orinoco oil field. The deal highlights investors’ rush into Venezuelan energy after sanctions eased. Auto Market: Chinese car exports jumped 64% in September as automakers seek growth abroad, including in Latin America, while domestic sales slumped. Their push could bring more competition and new vehicle supply to the region. Clean Energy Finance: Grenergy secured $460 million to fund a 446-megawatt solar-and-storage portfolio in Chile, underscoring investor appetite for Latin American renewables. Regional Outlook: The World Bank projects 2.2% growth for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026. Wealth managers remain constructive on emerging markets, with copper among their favored regional investments.

MercadoLibre: Revenue and financial income jumped 50% to $10.2 billion in its second quarter, but operating income fell 17% as the company reinvested in growth. Its marketplace and fintech ecosystem is expanding, with active buyers and fintech users both rising sharply. Regional Outlook: The World Bank projects 2.2% growth for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026. Commodities: A potential strike at a major Chilean copper mine could deliver a significant hit to production, JPMorgan warns. Clean Energy Finance: Grenergy secured $460 million to fund a 446-megawatt solar-plus-storage portfolio in Chile. Markets: Investors are adding Latin American currencies, encouraged by stronger emerging-market fiscal positions, external balances and high yields that could help cushion renewed European debt stress.

Brazil’s Political Stakes: The Oct. 25 runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro could reshape Brazil’s ties with China, with implications for industrial policy, infrastructure and the country’s room to attract investment. Financial Crime: Latin American criminal groups are using crypto mining, fintechs and brokers to move illicit funds; investigators cited Brazilian fintechs processing $5.1 billion for gangs, raising pressure for tighter oversight. Guyana’s Growth: The IMF projects 22.3% growth in 2026 and says gains are spreading beyond oil, with non-oil GDP up 14% in 2025. Crisis Aid: The World Bank is discussing support with 30 to 40 countries facing energy and fertilizer costs, while Panama declared an emergency with up to $100 million in spending and a proposed temporary easing of fiscal limits. Investment: Foreign investors poured a record R$10 billion into Brazilian stocks, while Grenergy secured $460 million for a 446MW solar-and-storage portfolio in Chile.

Venture Capital: Endeavor Catalyst closed its fifth fund at $320 million, with $55 million already invested in 30 companies across global markets. Payments: Evertec reported 20% revenue growth in the second quarter as Latin American expansion reshapes its business mix, though debt and valuation remain risks. Energy Investment: IRENA launched a regional partnership to turn renewable-energy plans into projects and attract private capital across Latin America and the Caribbean. Peru’s Power Sector: China Three Gorges expanded its electricity holdings, adding to Chinese firms’ growing role in generation and distribution and sharpening calls for stronger regulatory oversight. Copper Markets: UBS sees copper as a high-conviction investment theme amid tight supply and electrification demand; a strike at Chile’s Centinela mine could further constrain output. Panama’s Public Finances: After a major earthquake, the government authorized up to $100 million for emergency spending and plans to seek temporary relief from fiscal limits.

Copper: UBS calls copper a high-conviction theme as electrification and data-center demand outpace supply. A strike at Chile’s Centinela mine could further tighten the market. Energy Investment: Grenergy secured $460 million to finance a 446MW solar-plus-storage portfolio in Chile, while Guyana is pressing for stronger regional energy planning and cooperation. Growth Outlook: The World Bank sees Latin America and the Caribbean growing 2.2% in 2026; Guyana is forecast to expand 23.7%, sharpening focus on how its oil wealth is managed. Digital Finance: Coinbase and Gennius plan to bring ONED USD stablecoin access to Latin American banks, as SoFi, Orbi and Mastercard prepare a crypto-linked card in Mexico. Brazil Markets: The October 25 runoff is keeping investors alert to a potential shift in Brazil’s policy direction and asset outlook.

Digital Finance: Coinbase and Gennius plan to bring a USDC-backed stablecoin and related services to Latin American banks, starting in Argentina, with payments, custody and Visa card spending among the planned features. Brazil Markets: Flávio Bolsonaro edged Lula in the first round, leaving investors watching the Oct. 25 runoff; Lula’s government has cut fuel taxes and expanded subsidies ahead of the vote. Energy Investment: Grenergy secured US$460 million to finance a 446MW solar-plus-storage portfolio in Chile, while the World Bank warned drought could threaten hydropower and force a shift to costlier fossil fuels. Regional Outlook: The World Bank projects 2.2% growth for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026. A new Peru–El Salvador business pact aims to connect companies through investment deals, trade missions and a binational franchise desk.

Digital Finance: Coinbase and Gennius plan to bring a USDC-backed stablecoin and related services to Latin American banks, starting in Argentina. Separately, SoFi, Orbi and Mastercard are preparing a crypto-linked card for Mexico, adding to the region’s push into digital-dollar payments. Brazil Markets: Lula’s government cut fuel taxes and expanded subsidies ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff, a voter-focused move whose fiscal impact investors will watch. Foreign investors have also poured a record R$10 billion into Brazilian stocks. Chile Energy: JPMorgan warned that a strike at a major copper mine could significantly dent production, putting supply risks in focus. Clean Energy Investment: Grenergy secured US$460 million to finance a 446-megawatt solar-and-storage portfolio in Chile. Regional Outlook: The World Bank projects 2.2% growth for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026, while noting stronger growth is possible.

Chile Financing: Grenergy secured US$460 million for solar-plus-storage projects, part of a wider financing package that brings its Chilean non-recourse funding above US$2.4 billion. Paraguay Investment: JPMorgan’s Southern Cone chief pointed to energy, forestry and infrastructure as promising areas for private capital, citing the country’s stability and low-cost hydropower. Regional Outlook: The World Bank forecasts 2.2% growth across Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026, warning that debt, high borrowing costs and energy-price volatility could weigh on investment. Brazil Markets: After Flávio Bolsonaro edged Lula in the first-round vote, Brazil’s five-year credit-default swap spread fell 22 basis points to 108, as investors weigh whether the rally can last. Fintech: Latin America’s fintech sector has expanded 340% in six years, with Brazil’s Pix and digital banking helping drive adoption.

Venezuela Energy: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez says the government is negotiating 44 new energy agreements as it seeks to widen strategic partnerships and attract investment. Colombia and the IMF: Bogotá is seeking $8 billion to $20 billion in support, but a fiscal deficit projected at 7.2% of GDP this year and 9.4% next year could complicate negotiations. Digital Finance: SoFi Tech Solutions, Orbi and Mastercard are developing a Mexico card that lets users spend crypto, converted to pesos or other fiat at checkout. The partners say the launch could pave the way for stablecoin payments and remittances. Regional Outlook: The World Bank sees Latin America and the Caribbean growing 2.2% in 2026, but country prospects diverge; Guyana is forecast to expand 23.7%, while stronger policy and investment are lifting several economies. Brazil Markets: The presidential runoff is shaping investor bets after Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round showing helped drive a rally in Brazilian stocks and the real. Copa Holdings: September passenger traffic rose 17.1% year over year, outpacing a 15.7% capacity increase and lifting the load factor to 87.9%.