AGP Executive Report

USMCA Uncertainty: Trump says the US-Mexico-Canada trade pact could expire in 2036 unless renewed, injecting fresh risk into North America’s investment outlook ahead of talks with Mexico and Canada. Brazil Crypto Crackdown: Brazil’s lower house committee approved tougher rules that let judges freeze crypto holdings and raise penalties for digital fraud, signaling tighter enforcement for fintech and exchanges. Digital Banking Momentum: Nu Holdings keeps building a banking empire across Latin America, with investors watching growth metrics even as the stock slides in 2026. Peru Political Shift: Keiko Fujimori wins Peru’s presidency in a razor-thin race, promising tougher law-and-order policies that could reshape business and security risk. Venezuela Security & Sanctions: The US and Venezuela say they killed Tren de Aragua leader Héctor Guerrero Flores in a joint operation, while energy and arbitration developments keep the sanctions debate front and center. Caribbean Growth Push: Jamaica’s post-hurricane recovery gets a major financing boost routed through NaRRA, aiming to lift GDP by 20%+ and speed project delivery. Trade & Payments Tech: Morocco weighs a Chinese free-trade offer, while commentary highlights how stablecoin regulation and correspondent banking shifts are changing the Caribbean’s financial playbook.

Trade Risk for Investors: Trump says the USMCA with Mexico and Canada could expire in 2036 unless renewed, adding uncertainty ahead of talks in mid-June and raising the odds of fresh tariff leverage. Remittances vs. Growth Capital: Mexico’s migrant remittances hit $61.8B (2015-2025), now outpacing FDI and tourism as the top foreign-currency source—supporting household spending even if it doesn’t always translate into long-run investment. Venezuela Security & Markets: The US says a strike killed Tren de Aragua leader Hector Guerrero Flores, while the broader crackdown narrative may affect risk perceptions and cross-border flows. Banking Integrity Watch: Trinidad and Tobago’s former banking executives push back on claims of criminal facilitation through the financial system, warning confidence could take a hit. Argentina AI Corporate Plan: Javier Milei backs “non-human corporations,” a lightly regulated AI-operator model that could reshape liability and labor protections. Mining & Critical Minerals: Peru fast-tracks lithium and uranium as strategic minerals, aiming to speed key projects tied to the energy transition. Corporate/Deal Moves: GoGold Resources starts construction on Mexico’s Los Ricos South after final SEMARNAT permits, targeting first pour by mid-2028.

USMCA Uncertainty: Trump says the USMCA with Mexico and Canada could expire in 2036 unless renewed, adding fresh risk to North American trade talks ahead of separate June negotiations. Venezuela Security & Mining: Venezuelan forces launched a major operation in Bolívar’s gold belt to dislodge illegal miners and armed groups, with residents reporting explosions and displacement. EU-Caribbean Funding Push: Aruba’s OCT forum set priorities for EU-Caribbean cooperation, with Curaçao potentially in line for hundreds of millions of euros in 2028-2034 projects. Caribbean Infrastructure Strategy: The EU is eyeing Curaçao as a regional hub for undersea connectivity, renewable power tied to data centers, and sargassum-to-value chains. Stablecoin Rails in LATAM: Ripple and Bitso expand partnership, issuing Bitso’s MXN-backed MXNB stablecoin on XRPL to support enterprise cross-border settlement in the US–Mexico corridor. Banking Moves: Citi completed the sale of its Polish consumer-banking business to Velobank, continuing its exit from consumer banking in overseas markets. Air Connectivity: American Airlines hits a milestone—100 destinations across Latin America/Caribbean—adding new nonstop routes to Venezuela and Haiti from Miami.

USMCA Watch: Trump says the USMCA with Mexico and Canada could expire in 2036 unless renewed, throwing fresh uncertainty into talks set for June 16-17. Venezuela Energy: Venezuela granted Shell a license to explore and export natural gas from the Loran field, as Delcy Rodríguez pushes foreign investment after US pressure. Caribbean CBI: Dominica will require in-person visits for Citizenship by Investment applicants and passport collection, tightening the program’s rules. Payments & Banking Tech: XTransfer hit a European milestone at Money20/20 Europe with new banking partnerships (BBVA, Société Générale) to expand B2B cross-border settlement. Crypto Rails: Ripple and Bitso expand stablecoin settlement on the XRP Ledger, aiming to speed cross-border payments. World Cup Finance & Governance: Italy busted illegal TV streaming hubs tied to World Cup piracy, seizing €650k and tracing proceeds through crypto. Mexico Economy Narrative: A look at how Mexico’s post-1986 growth and FDI boom coexist with persistent inequality. Cyber/Markets: Kalshi tightens compliance by requiring some traders to disclose employer info amid insider-trading concerns.

Venezuela Sanctions Update: The U.S. Treasury revised seven OFAC general licenses covering oil, gas, petrochemicals and mining, including new rules on contract dispute resolution that could let major firms like Chevron, Repsol, Eni and BP operate under defined conditions. Brazil Amazon & Infrastructure: Brazil’s Supreme Court upheld removing parts of Jamanxim National Park to clear the way for the Ferrogrão grain railway, reigniting the fight between agribusiness logistics and protected areas. Brazil Drug-Trafficking Crackdown: Federal Police launched Operation Balkans after a cocaine seizure at sea, freezing accounts and targeting assets tied to a transatlantic trafficking network. World Cup Economics & Finance: FIFA is projected to set a revenue record near €9.5bn from the 2026 tournament, with host-city spending and tourism flows expected to boost local activity across Mexico, the U.S. and Canada. Mexico Political Tension: Ahead of the opener, Mexico City faces protests tied to austerity and teachers’ demands, adding risk to the event’s public-finance and security backdrop. Climate Risk for Investors: NOAA confirmed El Niño is forming and could rival the 1997-98 event, raising odds of costly extreme weather that can hit Latin America’s agriculture, insurance and infrastructure budgets.

Cuba-U.S. Transition Watch: Analysts say a new Cuba-U.S. agreement could trigger unpopular concessions for the Cuban exile community, with “difficult decisions” likely on both sides as Washington presses Havana. Venezuela Mining Crackdown: Reuters reports troops deployed in Bolivar’s Orinoco Mining Arc to hit illegal gold operations, amid fears of abuses and arbitrary detentions. Mexico World Cup Tensions: Mexico City’s World Cup opening faces mounting protests, including a teachers’ union blockade that threatens fan access and raises questions about spending priorities. Cuba Tourism Fallout: A report from Varadero describes a tourism collapse hitting hotel workers hardest, turning once-profitable tourism into precarious survival. Fintech & Payments in Mexico: Clip, with Ant International and Mastercard, is launching Mi Clip, a digital wallet push aimed at Mexico’s financial inclusion gap. Health Tech Funding: 4baseCare extended its Series B, raising Rs 128 crore total, to expand its genomics lab network and scale OncoTwin across emerging markets including Latin America. Emerging-Market Flows: Foreign investors pulled about $27bn net from emerging market portfolios in May, with equity outflows weighing on Brazil among other markets. Brazil-Korea Corporate Shadow: A Korea-Brazil partnership faces scrutiny after POSCO’s debt exposure in Brazil raised concerns about financial and social impacts.

Digital Payments Push in Mexico: Clip and partners (Ant International, Mastercard, Televisa-Univision) launched Mi Clip, a new wallet ecosystem aimed at speeding up digital payments and expanding formal financial access, with support for high-volume events like “Buen Fin.” Agentic Commerce Infrastructure: Getnet said it’s building infrastructure for AI agent-initiated payments, testing Mastercard Agent Pay in Mexico and progressing toward Visa Intelligent Commerce integration. Argentina Peso Pressure: Argentina’s peso slid about 6% in eight weeks, hitting a five-month low as investors get more risk-averse and the central bank loosens parts of its currency management. Fintech Banking License Path: Cocos got Central Bank approval to buy Banco Voii, a step toward its own banking license and expanded services like dollar access, savings, payments, and financing. Trade Finance Boost for the Caribbean: IDB Invest and the Caribbean Development Bank signed a US$25m guarantee deal to expand trade financing for smaller Caribbean economies. World Cup as a Finance Story: FIFA’s new hydration breaks and host-city spending plans underline how the tournament is driving media, ticketing, and municipal budget decisions across North America. Colombia Election Tension: Leftist Ivan Cepeda said he’ll accept the runoff result but will urge peaceful protests if rights aren’t upheld ahead of the June 21 vote.

Digital Asset Compliance: Elliptic says it has equipped KAST with blockchain intelligence to strengthen AML and sanctions controls across its stablecoin-based payments, after KAST used the tools since 2024 to screen wallets and monitor transactions. Mexico World Cup Disruption: Thousands of protesters blocked access to Mexico City’s Azteca Stadium ahead of the 2026 opener amid a teachers’ strike, forcing police barriers and raising questions about social stability around the tournament. Banking & Payments in the Region: Jamaica’s Barita Merchant Bank cleared Cornerstone Financial Holdings to roll out a digital-first banking platform, starting with a digital wallet and Visa card. Markets & Risk Controls: Kalshi says it will collect employment details for users in markets deemed at heightened risk of manipulation, adding integrity scoring and a whistleblower channel after insider-trading allegations. Energy & Finance Watch: A report estimates the U.S. has controlled nearly $8B in Venezuelan oil exports since January, with limited public transparency on volumes and use of proceeds. Tech & Investment Theme: Rio opens Web Summit Rio alongside “Rio AI City,” a large AI-ready data center district aimed at turning the city into a long-term tech and investment hub.

Debt Relief in Brazil: Brazil’s Novo Desenrola is already helping 6 million people, with about 4 million debts cleared, offering discounts up to 90% and capped interest around 1.99% per month, with the program set to run until Aug. 2. Open Banking Push: Bangladesh’s banking sector is moving toward open banking, with the central bank planning new guidelines to let banks use customer data via secure APIs. Venezuela Inflation & FX Stress: Venezuela reported May inflation at 6.3% (lowest in 19 months), but the official vs. parallel exchange-rate gap remains wide, keeping purchasing power under pressure. Argentina Retail Rebound: Global brands are returning to Argentina as import rules loosen, prompting mall operators to expand capacity despite still-soft consumer demand. Caribbean Security & Integrity: The Dutch Caribbean Coast Guard is launching an integrity overhaul after drug-related arrests and convictions involving personnel, amid concerns about organized-crime infiltration. Payments Risk Watch: A new analysis warns instant payments can strain bank liquidity and risk management because banks can’t net outgoing transfers as easily as before.

Banking & Capital Markets: S&P Global cut its outlook on Butterfield’s planned acquisition of CIBC Caribbean to negative, warning integration risks could weaken capital ahead of a 2027 close. Regional Development Finance: The World Bank approved an extra $9m for the Marshall Islands to cushion sharply higher energy costs, while the Caribbean Development Bank pledged to realign strategy toward youth, skills, climate resilience and faster delivery. Central America/Caribbean Trade & Infrastructure: Afreximbank said it has committed $83bn to Nigeria since inception, with Lagos a key hub for the next Intra-African Trade Fair. Macro & Currencies: Indonesia’s central bank raised rates off-cycle to stabilize the rupiah after record lows. Transport & Logistics: Lagos plans rail links across airport terminals (MMIA, GAT, MMA2) to improve passenger flow; AD Ports launched trial operations at Egypt’s Safaga terminal; ECS Group expanded air-cargo services across Asia with tech and sustainability focus. Energy & Clean Tech: Market reports point to rapid growth in electrolyzers and retail fuel stations adding EV charging and alternative fuels.

Fertilizer Shock in Brazil: Soaring fertilizer prices tied to Hormuz disruption are squeezing Brazilian farmers’ margins and pushing some toward debt, while the FAO warns the real danger is a fertilizer-and-production shock, not an instant food shortage. Mexico Renewable Push: CFE awarded 37 renewable projects totaling 7,411 MW in its first mixed investment tender, with solar dominating and wind missing targets. Stablecoins Go Mainstream: Binance says stablecoins are increasingly used for salaries, remittances, payments and savings across emerging markets, with 36% of users holding at least half their crypto in stablecoins. Venezuela Energy Diplomacy: Delcy Rodríguez met Türkiye’s Erdogan in Istanbul to review cooperation on trade, investment, energy, mining, housing and logistics. Caribbean Finance & Growth: Afreximbank held a Jamaica roadshow to boost trade, investment and industrialization financing, while Republic Bank’s “Five for Fun” cricket program expanded in Barbados. Security & Crime Routes: A report warns the Caribbean has become a strategic hub for transatlantic cocaine networks as interdiction pressure shifts routes. Air Travel Costs Watch: Airline CEOs at IATA’s Rio meeting warned engine problems and repair costs could keep aircraft grounded for years.

Aviation Profit Hit: IATA says airline 2026 profit forecasts are nearly halved to about $23B as the Iran-driven fuel shock, Gulf air disruptions, and delivery delays bite hard. Cross-Border Payments & Crypto: Kraken and MoneyGram are rolling out Bitcoin-to-cash withdrawals across 100+ countries, using MoneyGram’s ~500,000 retail locations as the fiat off-ramp. Latin America Energy Logistics: Adani Ports (APSEZ) won a 10-year marine services contract for Argentina’s first LNG export to India, backed by a reported $70M investment commitment. Banking & Rates Watch: Economists expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates for a fifth straight time, with messaging key for investors. Colombia Politics: Iván Cepeda accepted the first-round election results while also pushing legal actions over alleged irregularities and vote-buying. Tech/Infrastructure: Panasonic plans mass production of data-center battery cells in Kansas for FY2028 and a third plant in Mexico. Market Hype (Global, Not LatAm-specific): New research forecasts big growth in precision medicine, video-on-demand, and drone phones—useful for sector tracking, but not a direct LatAm policy signal.

Aviation Shock: IATA cut its 2026 airline profit outlook sharply, forecasting net profits of $23B (down from $45B) as Middle East conflict and soaring jet fuel prices squeeze margins to about 2%. Brazil Debt Diversification: Brazil plans its first yuan “panda bond” issuance in China later this month, aiming to reduce dollar dependence and diversify external funding. Mexico Investment in Ag Tech: Netafim’s Nefatim unit opened a major precision-agriculture factory in Hermosillo, targeting North and Central America and creating about 200 direct jobs. Colombia Campaign Clash: Ivan Cepeda filed a criminal complaint alleging AI-driven defamation and vote-buying by rival Abelardo De la Espriella, escalating the runoff’s digital warfare. Peru Runoff Watch: Polls opened for a tight presidential race between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sanchez, with crime and trust in election logistics front and center. Caribbean Governance Signal: Transparency International’s CPI again puts Haiti at the bottom of the Caribbean rankings, while several islands score relatively better. Cuba Humanitarian Aid: A ship carrying 1,700 tons of food and essentials from Mexico and Belize docked in Havana as Cuba’s shortages deepen.

Peru Election Watch: Peruvians vote Sunday for a runoff between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez, the ninth president in 10 years, with crime fears and institutional distrust hanging over a tight race. Caribbean Finance & Infrastructure: The Caribbean Development Bank flags traffic congestion as a development drag, citing major productivity losses across small islands and pushing for mobility solutions. Brazil Payments & Trade Friction: Brazil’s Pix is back in the spotlight as the U.S. trade office argues it restricts American commerce under Section 301, while broader U.S.-Brazil tensions keep investors on edge. Crypto in Brazil: Ethena’s USDe synthetic dollar goes live on Mercado Bitcoin, adding another USD-pegged on-ramp for Brazil’s fast-growing stablecoin crowd. Venezuela Tourism Push: Venezuela markets itself to Eurasian investors, pitching tourism as a jobs and connectivity engine and seeking new alliances for infrastructure. Regional Risk: A neglected displacement-crisis report puts Sudan at the top and highlights chronic underfunding, with Colombia also ranking high.

AI Credit Bet: DoubleLine and Oaktree are loading up on debt that could hold up if AI spending turns into a credit bust, warning that data-center overbuilding risk is real and only the strongest credits will survive a deep downturn. Stablecoin Pulse: PayPal’s $PYUSD supply fell 31% from its March peak to about $2.92B, even as the firm keeps expanding PYUSD access across 70 markets. Peru Election & Markets: Leftist contender Roberto Sanchez says he wants “respectful” ties with the US and promises continuity on macro policy and central bank independence, while dangling a major port deal for investors. Colombia Inflation: May inflation rose to 5.84% (annual), with housing and utilities driving the latest monthly jump, keeping pressure on the path toward the central bank’s 3% target. Aviation Cargo Boost: IATA expanded cargo services in Mexico and is rolling out real-time billing tools (FlexiPay) plus CASS updates, with Paraguay next. Energy Diplomacy: India and Venezuela are pushing deeper oil and gas cooperation as Indian firms look to expand in Venezuela and Caracas seeks longer-term investment. Caribbean Finance & Climate: The ECCU debate on high lending rates continues, while UNICEF flags a skills and opportunity gap for green jobs across the Eastern Caribbean. World Cup Green Push: 13 of 16 venues have LEED certification, with solar, water savings, and waste cuts built into the tournament footprint.

Cuba Tourism & Currency Pressure: Madrid says it’s in “permanent dialogue” with Spanish firms in Cuba as the Meliá Cohiba draws the rare crowds still willing to pay steep prices, while other Havana hotels sit empty—another sign of demand strain and the messy reality of exchange rates. Mexico Agriculture Boost: Baja California’s agriculture sector topped 23 billion pesos (~$1.1B) and supports 120,000 jobs, as officials push “Sabores del Campo” to lift local consumption and farmer income. Colombia Justice & Risk: Colombia’s Supreme Court upheld a 28-year sentence for Santiago Uribe, linking him to paramilitary creation and a 1994 homicide—raising political and legal uncertainty for investors watching security spillovers. Venezuela-India Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez met India’s leadership in Mumbai/New Delhi to deepen hydrocarbons cooperation as India seeks supply diversification. Caribbean Finance & Compliance: Belize took over the Caribbean Development Bank’s rotating chairmanship, while a Caribbean banking lecture warned that “derisking” risk can rise if banks don’t fully meet FATF standards. Brazil-US Terror Label Fallout: Brazil’s federal police chief called the U.S. terrorist designation for PCC and CV a “mistake,” warning of potential knock-ons for tourism, investment, trade, and finance. Lithium Race: The U.S. DOE announced $100M to speed lithium extraction innovation, targeting lower-cost, lower-impact battery-grade production. Colombia-Havana Aid: Colombia shipped ~100 tons of humanitarian goods to Cuba, including solar panels for the energy grid, citing hurricane damage and the ongoing blockade impact.