AGP Executive Report

Banking & Cross-Border Expansion: The U.S. OCC approved Itaú Bank’s charter to operate in the United States, with the new Miami-based unit targeting high- and ultra-high-net-worth clients tied to Brazil and Latin America. AI in Supervision: Brazil’s central bank says it spends R$3.6m a year to run AI-heavy monitoring, including a system that can review millions of loan exposures in a day. Energy & Markets: Mexico’s crude exports are stuck near historic lows, leaving Pemex revenue up but not enough to restore Mexico’s role as a reliable crude supplier as global prices rise. Food Inflation Risk: JPMorgan warns a mix of shipping disruption and El Niño could lift global food inflation, with Latin America among the most exposed regions. Investment Regime Watch: Argentina’s RIGI has drawn nearly $199bn in proposed projects, but most capital is still concentrated in oil, gas, mining and lithium/copper. Media & Content Spending: Prime Video plans to invest over $2bn in Latin America through 2030 to expand originals and sports rights. Regional Growth: ECLAC projects the Dominican Republic among the fastest-growing economies in 2026, while the region’s overall growth cools. Tech & Consumer Demand: Smartphone shipments in Latin America fell 10% in Q2 2026, though Apple held up better than peers.

Latin America Macro: ECLAC cut its 2026 growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.2%, citing a tougher external environment, tighter financial conditions and inflation pressure, with a partial rebound to 2.5% in 2027. Dominican Energy Finance: White & Case advised a bank consortium on a US$902.3m senior secured project financing for the Manzanillo LNG-to-power scheme in the Dominican Republic, backing 840 MW of combined-cycle capacity. El Salvador Connectivity: CAF launched a call for studies to build El Salvador’s first submarine cable, aiming to reduce reliance on terrestrial internet operators. OpenAI in Brazil: OpenAI officially launched business operations in Brazil, strengthening its local push as ChatGPT usage grows. Prime Video Spend: Prime Video will invest $2bn+ in Latin America from 2027-2030 across originals and live sports, including Mexico’s national team rights. AI Hardware in Brazil: Brazil plans two AI supercomputers funded via the national science fund—one with Huawei/iFlytek and another expected via a Nvidia-led tender—explicitly to avoid dependence on a single supplier. Tech & Trade: J&T Express reported H1 2026 profit up 124% to $350.6m, with parcel volume jumping 119.9% in Latin America. Energy/Climate Risk: El Niño is worsening Panama Canal congestion and could feed through to consumer prices across supply chains. Security Watch: South Africa uncovered a major crystal meth lab near Zimbabwe, arresting two Mexicans and others, pointing to Latin American cartel expansion concerns.

AI & Chips Race: Brazil will invest about 2.3 billion reais ($444m) to expand its AI ecosystem, splitting funding between a Huawei/iFlytek-backed supercomputing push in Rio and a separate tender for a new machine in Rio Grande do Norte, with Nvidia expected to be a key contender. Insurance M&A: Marco Capital (PoloWorks’ parent) agreed to acquire Pro Global, aiming to build a larger legacy insurance and services platform across Lloyd’s and international markets, pending regulators. Argentina Macro: Argentina’s June economic activity rose 2.7% year-on-year, with mining and agriculture among the biggest contributors, and the year-to-date expansion reaching 1.9%. Banking & Markets: Liberty Latin America director John Malone bought about 50,696 shares via a charitable trust arrangement, adding to his already sizable stake. Infrastructure: Guarulhos, Brazil’s largest city without metro service, is set for its first underground rail link as the Hebe Camargo TBM completes delivery and excavation is slated for late 2026. Migration Policy: Liberia began receiving a first group of 20 deportees from the U.S., with up to 1,200 expected over 12 months, including many from Latin America, under a $5m U.S. migration-management package. Tech/Startups: Colombia’s Madbricks launched “Mexican Ninja,” a new indie game blending Narcos and Yakuza themes, after years building titles for major publishers.

Brazil Banking & Fintech: Brazil’s big banks are still harvesting high rates, but Nubank and Pix are steadily eroding the old moat, even as credit growth and profits hold up. Mexico Macro & Markets: Colombia declares an economic emergency after a 7.4 quake, while Mexico weighs more trade curbs and tariffs on Chinese goods—raising uncertainty for investors watching USMCA talks. Venezuela Energy: Venezuela’s oil recovery is moving from politics to operations, with new production participation deals and a sharp jump in crude flowing to US refineries. Colombia Fiscal Shock: Colombia’s 30-day emergency lets the new government issue tax and spending rules without Congress to fund quake response, testing already fragile public finances. Insurance Deal: Marco Capital agreed to acquire Pro Global to build a larger specialist insurance services group across Lloyd’s and international markets. Energy Storage & Infrastructure: AerFin expands Boeing 777 parts stock in Miami for Americas operators, while Harmony Energy energises a UK BESS project and Capital Dynamics buys a 170MW long-duration storage project in Ireland. Tech & Policy: World Bank appoints a Trinidad and Tobago country manager, and Ali warns Caribbean broadcasters not to let AI replace editorial judgment.

Haiti Elections Readiness: Japan and the OAS signed a $3M deal to expand Haiti’s biometric ID system, issuing 350,000 new cards and updating the electoral registry ahead of Dec. 13 polls. Disaster Response & Security: The U.S. will send a hospital ship to Peru’s Pacific coast in Feb. 2027 to help manage El Niño impacts, while the U.S. Southern Command announced new operations targeting drug-trafficking networks across Colombia and Ecuador. Colombia Aid Friction: Colombia’s right-wing president faced criticism for politicizing earthquake aid, with delays and hurdles affecting foreign rescue teams. Crypto & Payments: Bitget Wallet launched a global creator affiliate program offering up to 60% commission on trading plus rebates tied to card spending. Demographics Meets Investing: Economists argue global fertility has likely slipped below replacement, with investors already repricing demographic risk into returns. Venezuela Energy Deals: Texas-based SLB and Hunt Oil signed early contracts with PDVSA as Washington pushes renewed oil investment. Business & Markets: AGCO cut Q2 profit sharply and lowered its outlook; BMS agreed to sell its U.S. reinsurance unit to Willis Re.

Stablecoin Payments in LATAM: Interlace opened a Brazil office and hired a local team to expand stablecoin-powered payment infrastructure for banks, cross-border trade platforms, and digital asset firms. Cross-Border Finance: Interactive Brokers added a new funding route for Latin American clients via Paysafe’s SafetyPay, aiming to make local-currency deposits faster and cheaper. Aviation Decarbonization: Syzygy Plasmonics and IFC agreed to back a pipeline of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) projects across Latin America, starting with NovaSAF-1 in Uruguay. Energy Transition & Investment: A geothermal knowledge-sharing platform (Geothermal Frontier) is pushing collaboration and funding for next-gen geothermal, while Latin America gas advocates argue the region’s underused natural gas could support energy security and a pragmatic transition. Cyber Risk for Financial Firms: Check Point reported July cyberattacks up 16% year-on-year, with ransomware nearly doubling and Latin America hitting record levels—an urgent reminder for banks and fintechs. Trade & Payments Tech: XTransfer’s Summit 26 in Shenzhen drew 4,500+ traders and 50+ banks, focusing on AI-driven cross-border payment security and efficiency.

El Salvador Crypto Push: San Salvador will host a November run of events—Bitcoin Histórico (Nov 11–12), EmTech AI LatAm (Nov 18–19) and a Bitcoin Circular Economies Summit (Nov 19–20)—as the country doubles down on Bitcoin, AI and new economic models. China–Ecuador Dealmaking: Xi Jinping met Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa in Beijing, urging alignment of development strategies and cooperation across energy, minerals, infrastructure, finance, plus digital, green and AI projects under the Belt and Road. Brazil Election Watch: A new analysis frames Brazil’s Oct. 4 vote as a key test for the “Global South,” with attention on how the result could reshape regional politics and economic direction. Oil Market Pressure: Moody warns persistently high oil prices (or fuel rationing) could weaken global activity and later hit energy demand, even as credit conditions for oil and gas producers have improved in 1H26. Colombia LNG Buildout: SEA-LNG backs Amazónica LNG’s membership as the company develops LNG import, storage and regasification infrastructure on Colombia’s Caribbean coast for bunkering-ready services. Chile SME Fintech: Lokal raised US$700,000 to expand its B2B marketplace for small merchants in Chile, adding AI to recommend what to buy, how much and when to restock. Labor Rights in Dominican Sugar: A report says forced labor persists on Central Romana sugarcane plantations, urging the U.S. to reinstate a prior import ban.

Argentina Renewable Finance: FinDev Canada and Germany’s DEG bought US$50m each of MSU Green Energy’s US$530m green bond, backing solar (182 MW) and battery storage (150 MW) plus continued operation of ~1.7 GW of renewables—an example of DFIs mobilizing private capital in LatAm. Stablecoin Distribution Shift: A new stablecoin “distribution layer” push is underway, with Open USD and HKDAP expanding B2B2C rails and major issuers competing less on issuance and more on merchant/consumer reach. Payments & Banking Leadership: Revolut named the former Remitly EMEA director as head of Revolut Bank’s Spain operations, signaling continued expansion of its banking footprint in Europe with Latin America experience in the background. Oil & Trade Risk: Moody warns persistently high oil prices could weaken global activity and energy demand, while Red Sea/Hormuz disruption risk is again raising freight and insurance costs for exporters. Brazil Election Stakes: Commentary frames Brazil’s October vote as a strategic battleground tied to U.S.-China influence and regional alignment. Cybersecurity (Nigeria): Digital Encode launched DEPAS AI, an autonomous access-testing platform aimed at countering AI-led cybercrime. Aviation (LatAm routes): WestJet expands its winter schedule to Mexico, Belize, Honduras and Aruba with capacity up year over year.

Energy Storage in Chile: Sungrow will supply a 152 MW / 606 MWh battery system for Verano Energy’s Observatorio project, with a 25-year service deal—another sign renewables are getting grid-ready in Latin America. Payments & Remittances: Bitget Wallet says stablecoins can act as a faster, more unified rail for cross-border payments across LATAM, where instant transfers like Brazil’s Pix are already mainstream. Regulated Money Transfer Deal: Western Union’s Intermex acquisition hit a new hurdle as California suspended its approval, even as New York regulators cleared it—yet another reminder that compliance risk can reshape deal timelines. Aviation Competition: Peru’s watchdog approved Abra Group’s acquisition of SKY Airline, but required limits on non-compete clauses to protect competition on key routes. Corporate Finance & Governance: TON Strategy added Oscar Suarez to its board and named him audit chair, highlighting ongoing governance focus in crypto-adjacent finance. Banking/Investment Context: Nu Holdings reported Q2 results, while broader market coverage flagged investor caution ahead of major retail earnings and oil-driven volatility. Security & Trade: USMCA uncertainty is pushing cross-border firms to revisit tax and operational planning as annual trade reviews could change rules. Industrial Tech: OT firewall demand is projected to keep rising as factories and utilities connect more systems—cyber spending is increasingly tied to uptime.

Payments & Fintech: EBANX is expanding its senior leadership across EMEA, Asia-Pacific, Africa and Latin America after 48% TPV growth, aiming to stay closer to merchants and high-growth markets. Fraud & Risk: SEON says betting operators saw the biggest fraud damage at cash-out during the 2026 World Cup, even as sign-up friction was eased. Energy Infrastructure (Brazil): China State Grid’s Belo Monte UHVDC Phase II is now pushing clean power across 2,534 km in Brazil, a “green artery” linking the Amazon generation base to the southeast. Energy Deals (Venezuela): XRG (ADNOC’s investment arm) entered Venezuela via the offshore Loran gas licence, joining bp and UCC for development of 4+ trillion ft³ of proven gas. Manufacturing (Brazil): LG Electronics started operations at a new Paraná refrigerator plant (about USD 310m), using AI and robotics and targeting faster growth across the Global South. Trade & Regional Industry: The Dominican Republic leads Latin America’s cement, lime and gypsum exports, with 2025 shipments hitting US$581.3m and a 25.4% share. Crypto Payments: Tron overtook Ethereum as the biggest USDT host, driven by a gasless feature and strong low-value transfer activity.

Vaca Muerta Bet: Peter Thiel’s hedge fund bought about a 1% stake in Argentina’s Vista Energy for roughly $76M, adding fresh Silicon Valley firepower to the Vaca Muerta shale push. EM Markets Mood: Emerging-market assets rose as investors priced in a softer US rate path, lifting EM currencies to their best streak since 2024 and pushing local-debt linkers higher. Paraguay Energy Overhaul: Paraguay plans to send bills to Congress to restructure its electricity sector, including a new Mines and Energy ministry and an independent electricity regulator. Chile Cabinet Shake-Up: Chile’s gender parity slid after recent changes left women leading just 8 of 24 ministries, drawing criticism from lawmakers and feminist groups. Argentina Impact Economy: Argentina hit 300 certified B Corporations, with 68 new additions in 2026, reinforcing the country’s momentum in triple-impact business. HIV Funding Focus: At AIDS 2026 in Rio, the message was blunt: “innovation without access is injustice,” as advocates push back against funding shortfalls. Travel Sustainability Shift: A new study argues “climate-first” travelers are moving from niche to mainstream, reshaping how the travel industry should plan.

Energy Reform Watch: Paraguay moves to overhaul its power sector with a new Ministry of Mines and Energy plus an independent electricity regulator, a structural shift after more than six decades. Argentina Shale Capital Flows: Peter Thiel’s Thiel Macro LLC bought about a 1% stake in Vista Energy for roughly $76M, giving direct exposure to Vaca Muerta’s oil and gas scale. Venezuela Gas Deals: bp and partners signed for Loran Phase 2 offshore development in Plataforma Deltana, while XRG also enters via the Loran licence—another step in the region’s LNG push. Water Infrastructure: Conagua finally awards the Rosarito desalination plant contract to Cox Energy/Cox Water, targeting first desalinated water by mid-2029 after two failed rounds. Digital Payments Reality Check: A new look at how cash and digital transactions keep growing side by side, reflecting real consumer needs across Latin America. Politics & Markets: Brazil’s election campaign kicks off with Lula leading in polls, but a large undecided bloc keeps the outcome fluid. Insider Moves (Equities): SEC filings show Thiel’s Vista bet and multiple routine insider share sales at Cintas and Sea Limited, mostly tied to vesting and tax obligations rather than a clear market signal.

Venezuela Energy Deal: bp has secured a Phase 2 offshore licence for the Loran gas field, with bp operating alongside Abu Dhabi’s XRG and UCC, building on earlier Loran progress and adding access to an estimated 4 Tcf of recoverable gas. Regional Power & Cooperation: Trinidad and Tobago’s PM Kamla Persad-Bissessar hailed the Loran Phase 2 and Plataforma Deltana licences as a boost to cross-border energy security and potential LNG and petrochem feedstock. Banking/Markets Watch: Brazil’s latest election polling keeps Lula in front (38%) versus Flávio Bolsonaro (31%), with a large undecided bloc that could still swing the October race. Telecom Modernisation: The 3G shutdown push is accelerating, with 174 operators in 67 markets already starting switch-offs and 102 completed, freeing spectrum for LTE/5G. Disaster Response Contrast: A Reuters comparison highlights how Venezuela’s earthquake response relied more on civilians amid delays, while Colombia mobilised multiple official entities quickly after its quake. Investment Signals: Insider selling at Sea Limited appears tied to scheduled tax-related moves under Rule 10b5-1 plans, not a clear shift in sentiment. Hospitality Expansion: Hyatt will convert Guyana’s Atlantic Suites Hotel into a Hyatt Regency Georgetown by 2028 after a ~$50m expansion. Macro/Trade: Argentina renewed a $19bn yuan currency swap with China through 2031, preserving a key liquidity backstop amid US pressure.

Stablecoin Payments Push: Mastercard closed its $1.8B BVNK deal, aiming to plug regulated stablecoins into card settlement rails for banks and merchants across Latin America and beyond. Argentina-China Liquidity: Argentina renewed a $19B yuan currency swap with China through 2031, preserving a key foreign-reserve backstop despite US pressure. Venezuela Energy Reopening: BP secured a Venezuela drilling licence for the Loran gas field after exiting the North Sea, signaling renewed investment appetite as post-Maduro openings accelerate. Disaster Response Capacity: Reuters contrasts earthquake aftermath in Venezuela vs Colombia, highlighting how faster coordination and equipment access can change survival outcomes. Brazil Banking Caution: Brazil’s big banks are shunning riskier lending as household debt strains rise, a warning sign for credit growth and asset quality. Latin America Markets: Latin American stocks were set for their worst week since June as investors rotated toward AI-linked Asian markets and worried about oil demand. Trade & Tariffs Watch: US solar “whack-a-mole” tariffs are driving rapid rerouting via Africa and Southeast Asia—an indirect reminder for LatAm exporters of how fast policy can reshape flows. Colombia Security Alignment: Colombia formally requested joint operations with US forces under the “Shield of the Americas” anti-cartel coalition, deepening the region’s security-policy shift.

Banking & Credit Watch: Brazil’s big banks are tightening lending, favoring secured products and higher-income borrowers as household debt strains show up even with a still-strong labor market. Digital Finance Expansion: Nubank posted record quarterly income above $1B for the first time, while pushing further into Mexico and building toward a U.S. bank. Payments & Crypto Rails: AEON expanded its agentic-economy settlement layer into Colombia by integrating Bre-B, enabling crypto-to-merchant payments settled in COP. Energy & Deals: XRG secured a Venezuela offshore gas licence tied to the Loran project, aiming to connect gas to established infrastructure. Geopolitics & Security: The U.S. is expanding its “Shield of the Americas” anti-cartel coalition, with Colombia joining under a tougher stance against drug trafficking. Markets & Macro: Argentina eased post-2001 dollar loan curbs to support growth, while Colombia’s political shift is framed as a “hard right” turn. Disaster Relief: Pope Leo XIV sent €100k in aid to earthquake-hit Colombia as the death toll and missing lists rise.

Venezuela Energy Openness: BP, with Abu Dhabi’s XRG and Qatar’s UCC, won the Loran Phase 2 offshore gas licence, a move seen as another signal that Venezuela’s post-Maduro energy opening is accelerating. Trade & Tariffs: Mexico asked the US in USMCA talks for a discount on the 25% car tariff on Mexican-made vehicles and more flexibility on steel duties, as Washington pushes a tighter, sector-by-sector review. Logistics & Ports: DP World marked 20 years at Peru’s Callao port, investing about $1B and lifting capacity and productivity, with the terminal now handling ~60% of Peru’s containerized cargo. Shipping Outlook: Maersk raised 2026 guidance after stronger Asian exports and higher ocean freight rates, while noting uneven trade flows including growth into Latin America. Digital Finance: Western Union secured commitments to keep remittance services and cap fee hikes in New York after its Intermex acquisition. Investment Climate: Taiwan and St. Vincent and the Grenadines held a trade-and-investment seminar, highlighting Taipei’s push to deepen links with Latin America and the Caribbean. Tourism Product: Pope Leo XIV’s Peru visit is being pitched as a longer-term pilgrimage route that could spread visitor spending beyond Lima. Corporate Results: Votorantim Cimentos reported 2Q26 revenue growth and higher EBITDA, alongside a continued capex push.