AGP Executive Report

Brazil-China Trade & Sustainability: Chinese meat traders started buying Brazil’s first “deforestation-free” beef under the Beef on Track certification, with audits tied to illegal forest clearing, protected/Indigenous areas, and labor risks—an early commitment of at least 50,000 tons this year. US Tariffs & Supply-Chain Risk: The Trump administration proposed 10%-12.5% tariffs on imports from about 60 economies, citing forced-labor concerns, while also pushing a separate 25% Brazil tariff plan—raising compliance and cost pressure for regional exporters. Cuba Sanctions Hit Payments: Cuba’s central bank said Visa and Mastercard transactions will be suspended from June 6 after US sanctions changes disrupted foreign processing partners. Venezuela Energy Payments: Venezuela ordered airlines and shipping firms to route fuel payments to a US Treasury account tied to PDVSA, signaling tighter controls and new payment mechanics for importers. Caribbean Tourism Strategy: Jamaica unveiled “Tourism 3.0” to reposition the sector for sustained growth and more local benefits, as CTO Caribbean Week convenes in New York. World Cup Finance & Betting: A forecast expects global World Cup betting volumes to top $50B, with North America’s legal betting reach set to amplify wagering.

World Cup & Mexico’s human cost: As the 2026 tournament nears, Mexico’s host cities are also spotlighting forced disappearances tied to cartel abductions, with advocates urging the world to look beyond matchday economics. Venezuela–India dealmaking: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez will visit India June 3–7 to push cooperation across energy, trade, investment, healthcare and renewables, holding talks with PM Modi. Payments & stablecoins: Mastercard is expanding settlement infrastructure to support on-chain settlement with regulated stablecoins and faster intraday processing, aiming to boost cross-border payments. Brazil port M&A: Macquarie and IG4 agreed to sell controlling stakes in Brazil’s CLI to AD Ports for $835m, targeting new Brazil–UAE trade routes. Colombia labor pressure: Ecopetrol’s main union USO starts a 24-hour strike over stalled collective bargaining talks, focusing on wages and labor rights. Crypto enforcement: The US Treasury sanctioned Iranian crypto exchanges including Nobitex, warning US firms not to provide services to designated platforms. US–Mexico border crackdown: Federal agents say a tunnel near the border moved $45m+ in cocaine, leading to arrests of four men. Tata–Chery EV pivot: Tata Motors plans to license Chery’s platform for premium EVs under its Avinya brand, with the first models targeted for 2027. Latin America banking/finance: Citi received approval to open a representative office in Guyana, signaling continued regional expansion.

U.S.-Brazil Compliance Shock: The U.S. designated Brazil’s PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorist groups, with FTO/SDGT steps that could raise legal and asset-blocking risk for any firm doing business tied to the gangs. Colombia Politics & Risk: Fear and violence are shaping the run-up to Colombia’s presidential runoff, with voters weighing security, extortion and fiscal strain. Argentina Trade Push: Argentina formalized its request to join the CPTPP, aiming to open new markets and boost private-sector competitiveness. Venezuela Energy Signaling: Delcy Rodríguez met the economic team and Hydrocarbons Engine and announced new oil-production contracts. Payments & Liquidity Tech: MANSA was recognized for cross-border settlement using stablecoin liquidity infrastructure across Africa and Latin America. Tourism & Connectivity: Avianca launched new nonstop flights between San Francisco and Guatemala City, adding direct access to Antigua and boosting Central America travel links. Climate & Weather Watch: UN/WMO warned El Niño has an 80% chance to develop June-August, increasing extreme heat and weather risks. Caribbean Finance Calendar: BVI Finance moved its Latin America roadshow to July (Lima, Bogotá, Panama City). Peru Security Costs: AP reports extortion and illegal gold mining are driving fear ahead of Peru’s runoff, with gangs exploiting weak enforcement.

Colombia Runoff Watch: Colombia’s presidential race is heading to a polarized runoff after a crime-focused candidate surprised in the first round, setting up a showdown between right-wing De la Espriella and leftist Cepeda—an outcome that could reshape policy, security, and investor sentiment. Brazil–U.S. Tensions: Brazil’s finance chief says the country will talk with the U.S. over threats to financial sovereignty as Washington designates Brazilian criminal groups as terrorist organizations, raising compliance and business risk. Caribbean Finance & Resilience: The Caribbean Development Bank and regional leaders push for stronger resilience planning as climate threats intensify, while a new arbitration/ADR training push aims to improve dispute resolution for investors across the Eastern Caribbean. Banking & Markets: Nigeria officially moved to a T+1 settlement cycle, cutting completion to one business day and aiming to boost liquidity and reduce counterparty risk. Payments/Fintech Talent: Yuno appoints Edwin Poot as CTO, signaling continued investment in merchant-focused financial infrastructure. Energy & Commodities: Venezuela’s delegation meets the IMF amid debt restructuring talks, and Colombia highlights untapped rare earth potential as global demand rises.

Mexico–U.S. Tensions: President Claudia Sheinbaum escalated rhetoric, saying far-right U.S. sectors are coordinating with domestic groups to “attack” her government amid tariff and immigration strains. Caribbean Development Finance: The Caribbean Development Bank will host top multilateral lenders in Nassau to debate how to adapt development finance for uncertain times. Caribbean Tourism & Brands: Rum tourism is shifting from a side attraction to a premium, story-driven growth engine as Caribbean arrivals keep rising. Aviation in the Region: ICAO’s North America, Central America and Caribbean civil aviation directors meet in Antigua to push safety, security, sustainability and cooperation. Fintech Momentum: A new report says global fintech revenues topped $500B and growth is outpacing traditional banks, with more public fintechs turning profitable. Caribbean Banking Deal: Butterfield’s $1.8B acquisition of CIBC Caribbean keeps reshaping regional financial footprints. Colombia Politics & Markets: Colombia’s presidential runoff is set between De La Espriella and Cepeda after a tight first round, keeping investors focused on policy direction. Venezuela–IMF Talks: A Venezuelan delegation met the IMF on technical assistance and recovery mechanisms as ties with multilateral lenders continue to reopen. Brazil Climate Tech: Brazil’s Copaíbas program is deploying real-time fire monitoring in conservation areas to cut response times and protect ecosystems. World Cup Economics: Argentina World Cup travel costs are high for fans, while FIFA’s India broadcast deal with Zee closes a major rights gap.

Colombia Election: Abelardo de la Espriella (“El Tigre”) and Iván Cepeda will face off in a June 21 runoff after a tight first round, with the result setting up a polarized fight over security and Petro-era reforms. Caribbean Tourism & Finance: Caribbean Week in New York kicks off with top tourism ministers and commissioners, spotlighting regional resilience and investment priorities for the travel economy. Brazil Health Watch: Brazil is investigating suspected Ebola cases in São Paulo and Rio after travelers returned from the DRC and Uganda, as health authorities also track the wider outbreak in eastern DRC. Rare Earths Investment: USA Rare Earth says it plans to expand its France operations, potentially exceeding €175m through 2030 to build more of the mine-to-magnet supply chain. Banking/Deals (Caribbean): Butterfield’s planned acquisition of CIBC Caribbean remains a key regional banking story, with deal momentum drawing investor attention. Crypto Regulation: Brazil’s central bank is pushing stricter independent audits for VASPs as the crypto compliance push continues. Tech/AI Infrastructure: Bull and Foxconn announce a strategic collaboration to manufacture AI and cloud infrastructure in Europe, aiming to strengthen “sovereign AI” capacity. Market Signals: A global video surveillance market forecast points to rapid growth, reflecting continued public and private spending on security systems.

Colombia Election Watch: Colombians vote in a tight presidential race that could force a runoff, with Ivan Cepeda leading polls on a left agenda of social reforms and peace talks, while right-wing Paloma Valencia and independent Abelardo de la Espriella split the anti-left vote—investors will be watching security, fiscal discipline, and health spending promises. Pensions in Focus: A key campaign battleground is whether Colombia raises the retirement age after Petro’s 2024 pension reform left it unchanged (57 women/62 men), raising fresh fiscal sustainability pressure as the population ages. Caribbean Connectivity: St Kitts and Nevis faces an airline gap after Caribbean Airlines withdrew from a route without consulting the government; officials say talks with another carrier are underway, a reminder that transport policy can quickly hit tourism and cashflow. Payments & Trade: Mexico and Russia plan talks on SWIFT alternatives to reduce trade friction and settlement barriers, with agricultural cooperation on the agenda. Dominican Monetary Policy: The central bank kept rates at 5.25% amid anchored medium-term inflation expectations, citing fuel-driven supply shocks. EM Debt Flows: Bloomberg reports distressed-debt hedge funds are turning away new capital as emerging-market cash piles in, making it harder to deploy money without moving prices.

Caribbean Banking Expansion: Citi won Bank of Guyana approval to open a representative office in Georgetown, aiming to deepen support for infrastructure and export financing as Guyana’s economy accelerates. Colombia Election Watch: With Colombia voting Sunday, polls point to a likely runoff on June 21 between Iván Cepeda (left, tied to Petro’s agenda) and Abelardo de la Espriella (right, aligned with Trump/Bukele-style messaging), while Paloma Valencia remains a distant third. Venezuela Oil Tech Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez inaugurated a PDVSA data and technology center to consolidate sovereign oil and gas information, boost automation and cybersecurity, and apply AI to maintenance and operations. Mexico Security & Religion: A CSW report warns Mexico’s religious freedom is being undermined by gangs and local customs, with threats and violence disrupting church activity. World Cup Finance & Risk: Ahead of the 2026 tournament, scammers are targeting fans with fake tickets and AI-driven phishing, while Mexico’s environmental permitting already forced Royal Caribbean to scrap a major water-park plan. Gold Miners Margin Pressure: Gold prices may stay firm, but miners face higher structural costs (labor, energy, geology), keeping margin pressure in focus for 2026.

Banking & M&A: CIBC agreed to sell its Caribbean business for about $1.6bn to Butterfield Bank, with CIBC taking a 22% stake and board seats—another consolidation move in regional banking. USMCA Watch: Mexico’s lower house approved an amendment to annul elections over foreign interference, while US negotiators are pushing for higher North American vehicle content to qualify for USMCA tariff benefits—raising stakes for auto supply chains. Geopolitics & Risk: The US designated Brazil’s PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorist groups, triggering backlash in Brasília and fears of wider external pressure. Brazil Macro: Brazil’s economy rebounded in Q1, growing 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, supported by consumption and investment. Crypto & Compliance: Coinbase expanded its TRUST Travel Rule network, adding BNY and partnering with 21 Analytics to scale institutional interoperability. Energy & Infrastructure: Vizhinjam port in Kerala hit 2m TEUs in 18 months, underscoring the value of resilient maritime routes as shipping faces geopolitical strain. Tourism & Real Assets: Antigua welcomed a $200m Long Bay Zen luxury resort project, signaling continued high-end tourism investment in the Caribbean.

Caribbean Banking Deal: Butterfield Bank agreed to buy CIBC Caribbean in a US$1.8bn transaction, with no immediate operational changes promised and a combined platform targeting expanded wealth and banking services across the region. Colombia Election Watch: Colombia heads to the polls Sunday with an unprecedented security posture—246,000 security personnel and alerts across 386 municipalities—amid concerns about political violence and deep polarization. Brazil Macro: Brazil’s economy grew 1.1% in Q1 2026 (1.8% year-on-year), led by consumption and investment, while exports fell and imports rose. Mexico Governance Risk: Mexico’s senate passed a constitutional amendment allowing election annulments on “foreign interference,” drawing sharp criticism over how broadly the term could be used. Chile Infrastructure: Chile approved a US$4.45bn expansion of the Port of San Antonio, set to triple cargo capacity. Energy & Power: ContourGlobal started commercial operations on a solar-plus-storage project in Chile with a 200MW, 6.5-hour battery and a power purchase agreement with Copec EMOAC. Banking Expansion (US): Scotiabank moves to expand its US mortgage reach by buying a Texas bank, aiming to fund independent mortgage lenders.

Caribbean AML Push: Guyana’s AG Anil Nandlall urged tougher AML/CFT enforcement across the region, calling for better judicial training after low conviction rates weaken anti-money laundering systems. Cross-Border Security Pact: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Peru signed the Santiago Regional Compact to coordinate against transnational organized crime, aiming to expand the model across the Americas. Caribbean Banking Deal: Butterfield agreed to acquire control of CIBC Caribbean in a landmark US$1.8b transaction, a major consolidation move for regional financial services. Crypto Compliance Upgrade: Coinbase expanded its TRUST network with TRUSThub, adding broader global Travel Rule connectivity and BNY participation, alongside automation partners like 21 Analytics. Mexico Electoral Rules: Mexico’s lower house approved a constitutional amendment to nullify elections over foreign interference, pending Senate approval. Tourism Momentum: New WTTC data shows Central & South America’s travel and tourism set to outpace the global average in 2026, with Mexico leading North America in 2025 growth. Lithium Drilling Watch: Solis Minerals secured a US$6m placement to fund lithium drilling in Brazil, while Galan Lithium advanced Argentina’s Hombre Muerto West commissioning toward first concentrate sales.

Banking Rescue in Brazil: Brazil’s government and the Federal District agreed a ~R$6bn ($1.19bn) loan package to support state lender BRB, backed by district revenue flows via the FGC, with a syndicate including Bradesco, Itaú, BTG Pactual, Caixa and Banco do Brasil—no federal guarantee, and the district must pursue fiscal adjustment. Caribbean M&A: Butterfield agreed to buy CIBC Caribbean Bank’s 91.7% stake in a deal valued around $1.8bn, aiming to build a larger banking and wealth platform across Caribbean markets. Nicaragua Mining Reversal: Nicaragua said it will return BHMB Mining to its original owners after confiscation in 2025, allowing operations to resume at the Palacaguina plant under a confidential agreement. Argentina Capital Markets: Provinces and Buenos Aires tapped global bond markets heavily in early 2026, with Buenos Aires issuing a 10-year bond at a record-low 7.4% as investors look beyond federal short-term debt. Colombia Election Watch: Abelardo De La Espriella surged in polls ahead of Sunday’s vote, pitching a hardline security and anti-crime agenda. Cyber & Crypto Risk: Telegram is being used to sell verified bank/fintech accounts as “money mule” marketplaces, while U.S. sanctions hit Sinaloa-linked crypto laundering networks. Tourism Demand: Brazil’s central bank reported foreign tourist spending of BRL 20.2bn in the first four months (+9.2% y/y), with April up to BRL 4.19bn.

Payments & Fintech: Ant International’s Alipay+ is partnering with PVS to launch cross-border QR payments across Latin America, starting with Chile and Argentina and expanding to more markets—aimed at easier local-currency checkout for travelers. Banking & Risk Transfer: SCOR sponsored a new $75m catastrophe bond (Atlas Capital DAC Series 2026-1) to cover named storms in the US and Caribbean, US/Canada earthquakes, and European windstorms, with a 2026-2029 risk period. Energy & Policy: Brazil is set to restart Amazon oil drilling after a decade-long pause, with Petrobras planning about R$2.5bn in investments for dozens of new wells in the Urucu area—reigniting the deforestation/climate debate. Regional Macroeconomics: Colombia’s transition period is marked by social gains (unemployment at 8.9%, multidimensional poverty down to 9.9%) alongside rising fiscal strain and public debt as Petro exits in August. Tourism & Infrastructure: Puerto Rico inaugurated Pan American Pier 2 in San Juan after a $40m investment, targeting more cruise traffic and $41m+ in 2026-27 cruise-related economic activity. Climate Adaptation: Curaçao and Sint Maarten’s central bank is pushing National Adaptation Plans to turn climate awareness into budgeted, coordinated action.

Housing & Social Spending: Brazil’s Lula says AI-fueled misinformation is distorting elections as he delivers 576 affordable housing units in Manaus, a BRL 92.1m project for about 2,000 people. Venezuela University Support: Venezuela’s education ministry will transfer funds to the Central University of Venezuela (UCV) to keep dining services subsidized for the whole campus community after budget limits threatened to restrict trays to students only. Bolivia Protests & Supply Disruption: Bolivia’s new government faces violent protests that have blockaded cities, triggering shortages of food, fuel and medical supplies, with lawmakers moving toward emergency powers. Payments & Crypto Rails: Brazil’s Capa integrates BRL1 (real-backed stablecoin) on Polygon to enable faster cross-border transfers without routing through dollars or correspondent banks. Regulation & Competition: Chile’s antitrust regulator proposes a $39.6m fine on Pluxee for alleged collusion with Edenred over voucher market share (2013-2021). Caribbean Mobility: Guyana and Barbados agree to let citizens travel passport-free from July 1, 2026 using secure biometric national IDs. Banking/Fintech Expansion: Alchemy Pay expands its Malaysia crypto on-ramp by adding GrabPay, Touch ’n Go eWallet and Boost.

Higher-ed Power Grab in Texas: The University of Texas system approved rule changes that let presidents close departments on “extraordinary circumstances,” potentially bypassing normal review—faculty warn it could enable politically driven program shutdowns. China-Colombia Reset: Chinese and Colombian foreign ministers in New York pledged to deepen practical cooperation on trade, investment, and infrastructure, with Colombia reaffirming the one-China principle. Crime Strategy Debate in the Pacific: New Zealand’s customs minister says the region can’t “arrest” its way out of organised crime—calls for better legislation, border strengthening, and cross-agency action. Cuba Tourism Risk: A report argues Spanish hotel operators’ advantage in Cuba could be undermined if U.S. negotiations push tourism contracts toward American investors. Markets & Tech: U.S. stocks hit fresh records as Iran-war hopes buoy sentiment; meanwhile, SpaceX’s Starship test supports its IPO narrative despite a failed booster landing. Trade & Infrastructure: Chile approved the $4.45bn Puerto Exterior expansion at San Antonio, aiming to boost capacity for mega-ships.

Fed Watch: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh starts his first full week with a credibility trap—his campaign promise of easier rates and less “forward guidance” collides with hawkish bond pricing as energy-driven inflation stays above target. Brazil Politics: Flávio Bolsonaro heads to Washington to court Trump support as audio-linked scandal pressure grows, with his meeting reportedly not on the White House schedule. Cuba Energy & Sanctions: A sanctioned Russian diesel tanker has altered course away from Cuba after weeks at sea, underscoring the island’s ongoing fuel crunch. China Macro: Xi Jinping chaired a CPC economic work meeting, signaling more concrete support while admitting recovery still needs strengthening. Mexico/World Cup Trade: Mexico is pitching itself as the cheapest World Cup base for Airbnb stays, while Colombia Election: the runoff race tightens with campaigns marked by unusually low debate and high security anxiety. Mining Accountability: Chile’s Codelco faces fallout after overestimated copper output, triggering bonus repayment fights.