AGP Executive Report

Brazil Markets: Lula’s surprise reelection triggered a sharp selloff: Nu Holdings fell 25%, Petrobras 21% and MercadoLibre 15%, as investors weighed fears of higher taxes and state intervention. Lula also faces a conservative Congress and tight fiscal constraints, clouding the outlook for his final term. Digital Payments: MAJORITY launched USDC transfers to Latin America through zerohash, letting eligible U.S. customers send dollar-backed stablecoins to family wallets around the clock. Fintech Expansion: UK-based Plus500 expects to start onboarding Brazilian customers after acquiring local broker Guru, extending its reach across Latin America. SME Lending: Colombia’s Bold secured credit from BBVA Spark to expand loans to small businesses.

Brazil Markets: Lula won a fourth term with 51.8% of the vote, upending investor bets on a Bolsonaro victory and fiscal restraint. A Brazilian stock ETF fell 13% in Japan as markets reacted to the result. Regional Finance: St. Vincent and the Grenadines approved membership in development bank CAF, investing about US$2 million for potential access to roughly US$8 million in borrowing. Debt Markets: The Bahamas completed a US$1.1 billion international bond issuance. SME Lending: Colombia’s Bold secured credit from BBVA Spark to expand loans to small businesses. Energy Investment: Venezuela’s oil production reached 1.25 million barrels a day, marking a significant recovery.

Brazil Markets: Investors are watching a knife-edge presidential runoff as Lula closes the gap on Flávio Bolsonaro. A Bolsonaro win had fueled bets on fiscal reform and a rally in Brazilian assets; a different result could unwind gains. Clean-Energy Finance: Latin America and the Caribbean need an estimated $2.2 trillion in infrastructure investment by 2030, but policy uncertainty, weak infrastructure and costly financing are deterring private capital, an IDB-CGD study finds. Development Finance: St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ parliament approved membership in CAF, opening another potential source of financing and technical support. The country will subscribe to about US$2 million in shares, but membership does not guarantee loans.

Brazil’s Runoff: Markets are turning cautious as Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva head into a tight presidential vote; a Datafolha poll put them level at 50% of valid votes. Energy: Venezuela says oil output reached 1.252 million barrels a day, its highest since 2019, as Caracas advances an energy agreement with Washington. Growth: The Dominican Republic’s economy grew 5.6% year over year in September; financial services expanded 7.8% in the first nine months of 2026. Regional Finance: The IDB has increased its lending capacity to $138 billion and launched a network to help attract investment across Latin America and the Caribbean. SME Credit: Colombia’s Bold secured financing from BBVA Spark to expand lending to small and midsize businesses. Rates: Major central banks are expected to hold rates steady this week, while signaling that further hikes remain possible.

Brazil’s Runoff: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro finished their final debate with polls showing a 50–50 tie, keeping investors focused on the policy direction of Latin America’s largest economy. Dominican Republic: GDP grew 4.6% in the first nine months of 2026, with financial services up 7.8% and construction leading growth at 8.2%. Capital Markets: The Bahamas completed a $1.1 billion international bond issuance, while investors are increasingly eyeing Latin America for energy, minerals and food exposure. Regional Finance: The IDB has increased its lending capacity to $138 billion and launched a network to help attract investment across Latin America and the Caribbean. Insurance: Prudential plans to sell its Brazil and Mexico businesses for more than $4 billion; the deal is expected to lift buyer CNP’s Brazil share of revenue to 24%. Infrastructure: The EIB and Neoenergia are backing a €342 million upgrade to Brazil’s power grid.

Brazil Markets: Investors are turning cautious ahead of Sunday’s tight presidential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with the result carrying major implications for policy and business. Foreign buyers helped lift Brazilian M&A deals 16.4%, while Prudential agreed to sell its Brazil and Mexico businesses for $4.025 billion. Capital Flows: The Bahamas completed a $1.1 billion international bond issuance, and Guyana’s economy is projected to grow 22% this year. Infrastructure: The European Investment Bank and Neoenergia are backing a €342 million upgrade to Brazil’s power grid. Digital Finance: Tether invested in Bolivian fintech Peso to expand USDT payments in the region. Energy Risk: Oil climbed above $117 a barrel as Middle East tensions stoked supply concerns, adding pressure to costs and market sentiment.

Brazil’s Election: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s runoff promises include a shorter workweek and higher welfare payments. Business leaders warn the changes could raise costs and inflation, putting fiscal policy and investor confidence in focus. Sovereign Debt: The Bahamas raised US$1.1 billion through a 13-year bond, attracting orders 3.2 times the amount offered at a 7.70% yield. Refinancing is set to cut scheduled debt repayments by at least US$331 million through 2029. Argentina Markets: Argentine bonds have sold off as election concerns weigh on investors, while Washington has publicly tied its support to Milei’s political direction. Banking Security: Reports say AI-enabled cybercriminals targeted more than 400 Latin American banks and financial firms, highlighting rising risks for the region’s financial sector. Digital Payments: Tether is backing Bolivian fintech Peso to expand USDT payments for food purchases and banking. Renewable Energy: Voltalia says it reached its 3GW operating-capacity goal three months early; curtailment in Brazil fell 32% year on year.

Banking: Puerto Rico’s First BanCorp posted third-quarter net income of $96.1 million, with loans up $108 million and deposits also higher. Energy Finance: GeoPark said $266.8 million of its 2030 notes were tendered; separately, it secured more acreage in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale basin. Growth Outlook: ECLAC expects El Salvador to grow 4.5% in 2026, while it projects 6.5% growth for Venezuela in both 2026 and 2027—well above the regional forecast, though uncertainty and financing constraints remain risks. Political Risk: Brazil’s approaching presidential runoff and a rightward shift in Congress raise the stakes for policy and investment; in Argentina, election fears have helped trigger a bond sell-off. Regional Capital: The IDB has raised its lending capacity to $138 billion and launched a network to help attract investment across Latin America and the Caribbean. Fintech: Tether-backed Peso is expanding stablecoin payment infrastructure across the region, including a Bolivian fintech partnership for food purchases and banking.

Banking and Investment: The Inter-American Development Bank has increased its lending capacity to $138 billion and launched a regional investment network to support growth across Latin America and the Caribbean. Markets and Politics: Argentina’s bonds have sold off as election fears unsettle investors, while Brazil’s rightward-shifting Congress could reshape economic policy after Sunday’s presidential runoff. Corporate Deals: Prudential agreed to sell its Brazil and Mexico businesses for $4.025 billion, a deal that will increase CNP’s share of revenue from Brazil. Energy: GeoPark won a 24,200-acre position in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta basin, adding to its shale portfolio. Digital Finance: Tether is backing Peso’s expansion of USDT payments across four Latin American countries, including merchant payment infrastructure and a Bolivian fintech partnership. Cyber Risk: A security firm says AI-assisted hackers targeted more than 400 banks and financial firms in Latin America, reportedly stealing passwords and customer data.

Argentina’s Debt: Sovereign bonds have slumped, with yields nearing 12% as election worries and roughly $25 billion in hard-currency payments due next year unsettle investors. Digital Finance: Tether backed Bolivian fintech Peso to expand USDT payments across Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia and Argentina, building on services linked to food delivery and local banks. Banking Deals: Prudential agreed to sell its Brazil and Mexico businesses to CNP Assurances for $4.025 billion, shifting its regional footprint. Development Finance: The IDB raised its lending capacity to $138 billion and launched a network to help channel investment into Latin America and the Caribbean. Private Capital: An Argentine fintech raised $5.4 million from investors including Guillermo Rauch and SpaceX executives, while Plus500 agreed to buy Brazilian broker-dealer Guru. Energy Investment: GeoPark won the Corralera Noreste block in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta basin, adding acreage to its regional growth plans.

Investment Climate: The IDB launched a network to help Latin American and Caribbean investment agencies share expertise and make it easier for investors to move projects forward. Digital Infrastructure: The World Bank’s first digital strategy targets affordable connectivity, devices, skills and AI readiness; its shared-computing initiative will initially include Latin America. Argentina: A consortium bid $340.2 million for a 90% stake in water utility AySA, advancing President Javier Milei’s privatization drive, while the Treasury faces $24.9 billion in 2027 financing needs. Circle and Allaria also agreed to boost USDC liquidity in the country. Cross-Border Deals: Prudential agreed to sell its Brazil and Mexico businesses for $4.025 billion, and Plus500 plans to acquire Brazilian broker-dealer Guru. Trade: Guyana’s goods trade is projected to grow 15% this year, according to ECLAC.

Cross-Border Deals: Prudential Financial agreed to sell its Brazil and Mexico businesses to France’s CNP Assurances for $4.025 billion, a major reshaping of its Latin American footprint. Plus500 is also expanding in Brazil, agreeing to buy broker-dealer Guru. Brazil Investment: Samsung Bioepis signed a 10-year deal to supply a rare-disease biosimilar through Brazil’s public health system, with technology transfer involving local partners. Digital Finance: Circle partnered with Argentina’s Allaria to improve USDC liquidity, as fintechs target demand for faster cross-border payments. Nearshoring: Latin America’s factory investment boom faces a practical test: strained utilities and infrastructure may not meet the precise conditions required by advanced manufacturers. Growth Outlook: Panama, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic are forecast to grow faster than the region’s largest economies, supported by services, logistics and capital inflows.

Insurance: Prudential agreed to sell its Brazil and Mexico insurance businesses to France’s CNP Assurances for $4.025 billion in cash, with completion expected in the second half of 2027. Brazil Trading: Plus500 conditionally agreed to buy regulated broker Guru, giving the fintech a direct foothold in Brazil and access to local stocks, futures, options and fixed income. Colombia’s Fiscal Outlook: Congress approved a 2027 budget of 634.9 trillion pesos ($201.1 billion), projecting a deficit of 9.4% of GDP as rising debt weighs on the country’s investment-grade prospects. Market Valuations: Emerging-market stocks trade at a record 53% discount to US shares on forward earnings, as stronger profit forecasts fuel investor interest. Venezuela Oil: Global service firms are advertising jobs in the country, an early sign of renewed activity as plans to rebuild its energy sector take shape. Brazil’s Runoff: A close presidential contest could shift the country’s economic and trade direction, keeping investors focused on policy risk.

Refining: Citgo raised its 2026 EBITDA forecast by $2 billion to $7.7–$8 billion as fuel margins surged, highlighting a windfall for refiners amid higher energy costs. Fintech: Mexico’s Kapital agreed to buy AI startup Woz for $30 million to expand its banking and financial-services tools. MoneyGram also launched an app enabling US customers to send funds to Colombia and El Salvador and manage digital balances. Trade and investment: Venezuela, UNCTAD and CAF began work on a plan to diversify exports, while the IDB says it mobilized a record $12.2 billion in private capital for Latin America and the Caribbean. Uruguay’s planned $5.7 billion data-center project adds to the region’s technology investment pipeline. Economic outlook: The IMF urged Latin American governments to reduce debt and lift productivity while favorable conditions last; regional goods exports are projected to grow 20% this year.

Brazil Election: A new poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva almost even in the final week before the runoff, keeping investors focused on policy uncertainty in the region’s largest economy. Capital Flows: The IMF says demand for financing is growing as governments shift toward more market-oriented policies; it has 10 active lending programs in the Americas and is discussing a new one with Colombia. Market Access: MKI Global Partners has opened an emerging-markets practice focused initially on Latin America, while Circle plans to expand into about 40 developing markets as stablecoin demand rises. Argentina: The government has paused local dollar-bond sales as a major debt repayment wall approaches, even as mining draws strong foreign investor interest. Investment Pipeline: Uruguay is pursuing a data-center project valued at up to $5.7 billion, and the IDB says it mobilized a record $12.2 billion in private capital for Latin America and the Caribbean.

Brazil Runoff: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro enter the final week before the Oct. 25 vote, with investors watching for signals on fiscal policy and the economy. Multilateral Finance: The IMF says it is backing a market-oriented policy shift in the region. It has 10 active programs across the Americas, including new financing for Bolivia and talks with Colombia. Mining Investment: Argentina’s mining exports hit a record $8.1 billion in 2025; metal and lithium exports rose 70% year over year in the first half of 2026, and mining accounts for half of projects approved under its large-investment incentive scheme. Digital Payments: Apple’s Tap to Pay is now available in eight Latin American countries, letting merchants accept contactless payments on iPhones through local payment partners. Trade Outlook: ECLAC projects Guyana’s goods trade value will grow 15% this year, supported by higher hydrocarbon and commodity prices.