AGP Executive Report

Cuba Tourism & Currency Pressure: Madrid says it’s in “permanent dialogue” with Spanish firms in Cuba as the Meliá Cohiba draws the rare crowds still willing to pay steep prices, while other Havana hotels sit empty—another sign of demand strain and the messy reality of exchange rates. Mexico Agriculture Boost: Baja California’s agriculture sector topped 23 billion pesos (~$1.1B) and supports 120,000 jobs, as officials push “Sabores del Campo” to lift local consumption and farmer income. Colombia Justice & Risk: Colombia’s Supreme Court upheld a 28-year sentence for Santiago Uribe, linking him to paramilitary creation and a 1994 homicide—raising political and legal uncertainty for investors watching security spillovers. Venezuela-India Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez met India’s leadership in Mumbai/New Delhi to deepen hydrocarbons cooperation as India seeks supply diversification. Caribbean Finance & Compliance: Belize took over the Caribbean Development Bank’s rotating chairmanship, while a Caribbean banking lecture warned that “derisking” risk can rise if banks don’t fully meet FATF standards. Brazil-US Terror Label Fallout: Brazil’s federal police chief called the U.S. terrorist designation for PCC and CV a “mistake,” warning of potential knock-ons for tourism, investment, trade, and finance. Lithium Race: The U.S. DOE announced $100M to speed lithium extraction innovation, targeting lower-cost, lower-impact battery-grade production. Colombia-Havana Aid: Colombia shipped ~100 tons of humanitarian goods to Cuba, including solar panels for the energy grid, citing hurricane damage and the ongoing blockade impact.

US–Brazil Security Shock: Washington’s terrorist-designation of Brazil’s CV and PCC factions took effect Friday, drawing pushback from Brasilia over sovereignty and potential knock-ons for tourism, investment, trade, and the financial system. Banking & Compliance Angle: The same US playbook has already targeted Mexican cartels and groups in Venezuela, Ecuador, and Colombia, raising compliance risk for regional firms. Cannabis Banking Shift: A US legal gray zone is finally easing for lenders as community banks and credit unions show more willingness to serve cannabis operators, helped by growing acceptance and clearer risk appetite. Caribbean Finance Push: Afreximbank launched a Jamaica roadshow to expand trade finance and industrialization support, while the Caribbean Development Bank highlighted diversification and resilience priorities at its 56th meeting. Climate Resilience Funding: Dominica unveiled a US$26M climate resilience program focused on food security, disaster readiness, and early warning systems. Venezuela–India Energy Reset: India’s oil minister met Venezuela’s acting president to deepen long-term energy cooperation as crude supply uncertainty reshapes sourcing. Cross-Border Payments: Bank of America plans cross-border real-time payments, signaling faster settlement competition for LatAm banks. Tourism & Mobility: Uruguay announced a visa waiver for Chinese citizens, and Grenada approved visa-free entry for Nigerians to boost tourism and investment.

Venezuela–India Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez met PM Narendra Modi in New Delhi, with talks focused on hydrocarbons and expanding trade and investment across the hydrocarbon value chain, while India’s petroleum minister said an Indian technical team will soon visit Venezuela to explore new energy opportunities. Argentina–UK Oil Standoff: Argentina warned it could “fully exercise all” actions over the Sea Lion oil project near the Falklands, calling the development unlawful and targeting Rockhopper and Navitas. Brazil–China Sustainable Beef: China’s Tianjin Meat Association agreed to buy 50,000 tonnes of deforestation-free Brazilian beef by end-2027, signaling demand for traceable, forest-friendly supply chains. Caribbean Development Finance: The Caribbean Development Bank won approval for a Canada-backed first-loss portfolio guarantee, aiming to unlock up to US$400M for climate resilience and sustainable infrastructure. Mexico–Germany Crime Cooperation: Mexico and Germany agreed to deepen cooperation against organized crime and drug trafficking, alongside broader economic and energy-transition discussions. Markets & Risk Watch: A Reuters market preview flagged the looming SpaceX IPO and a likely ECB rate hike, setting the tone for global risk sentiment. Agribusiness/Mining Watch: NewPeak Metals reported 1,834m of drilling at Argentina’s Las Opeñas gold project, while Barrick secured new Nevada exploration permits.

India–Venezuela Energy Push: PM Modi met Acting President Delcy Rodríguez in New Delhi, with talks spanning energy security, trade, investment, healthcare, autos and renewable energy—Venezuela is now India’s third-largest crude supplier, setting up fresh partnership momentum. Caribbean Development Bank Focus: Dominica’s PM Friday told the CDB governors meeting in Nassau that the bank is central to advancing Caribbean development projects and resilience amid uncertain times. Payments Upgrade: Bank of America said it will launch cross-border real-time payments next quarter via Swift or CashPro, targeting faster, lower-cost international transfers for remittances and marketplace payouts. Crypto Meets Traditional Rails: Bybit integrated Western Union’s USDPT stablecoin, making it the first major exchange to connect to Western Union’s USDPT network for compliant, 1:1 dollar settlement. Argentina–UK Energy Tension: Argentina threatened retaliation over a UK-linked offshore drilling plan near the Falklands, escalating a sovereignty dispute with potential investment and regulatory fallout. Venezuela Mining Risk: A report highlights how gang control and extortion in Venezuela’s mining arc could complicate private investment despite new openness to capital. Citi Strategy Talent: Citi promoted Margo Pilic to a new role combining strategy, M&A and investor relations as the bank enters its next growth chapter. Border Security Tech Angle: A brief on South America’s border modernization points to tech-led systems in Argentina and Chile as a way to manage travel volumes and organized-crime threats.

Venezuela-India Dealmaking: India’s Jaishankar met Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodriguez in New Delhi, with talks set to cover energy security, trade and investment, healthcare/pharma, transport and renewables—setting up a Modi meeting later today. Global Fuel Shock for Airlines: IATA’s Rio summit opens as the Iran war keeps pushing jet-fuel costs higher, forcing route changes and fare pressure, with analysts warning profits may fall short of earlier forecasts. Food-Price Risk Watch: Reuters flags hot, dry weather across Asia as El Niño strengthens, hitting planting from India to Thailand and Indonesia, while wheat and rice prices climb on supply fears. Argentina Rights Protests: Argentina’s Ni Una Menos marked 11 years with nationwide marches demanding stronger state action on gender violence and faster enforcement, including economic-violence protections. Gold on Geopolitics: Gold prices are supported by ongoing uncertainty and central-bank buying, with 2025’s rally linked to hedging demand. Crypto/Payments & Compliance: Brazil’s crypto licensing is tightening with strict independent audits for VASPs, while stablecoin settlement momentum continues via major payment networks. Caribbean Finance: The Caribbean Development Bank approved a US$200m guarantee to expand financing for Caribbean development, alongside calls for greener, more resilient growth.

Brazil-China Trade & Sustainability: Chinese meat traders started buying Brazil’s first “deforestation-free” beef under the Beef on Track certification, with audits tied to illegal forest clearing, protected/Indigenous areas, and labor risks—an early commitment of at least 50,000 tons this year. US Tariffs & Supply-Chain Risk: The Trump administration proposed 10%-12.5% tariffs on imports from about 60 economies, citing forced-labor concerns, while also pushing a separate 25% Brazil tariff plan—raising compliance and cost pressure for regional exporters. Cuba Sanctions Hit Payments: Cuba’s central bank said Visa and Mastercard transactions will be suspended from June 6 after US sanctions changes disrupted foreign processing partners. Venezuela Energy Payments: Venezuela ordered airlines and shipping firms to route fuel payments to a US Treasury account tied to PDVSA, signaling tighter controls and new payment mechanics for importers. Caribbean Tourism Strategy: Jamaica unveiled “Tourism 3.0” to reposition the sector for sustained growth and more local benefits, as CTO Caribbean Week convenes in New York. World Cup Finance & Betting: A forecast expects global World Cup betting volumes to top $50B, with North America’s legal betting reach set to amplify wagering.

World Cup & Mexico’s human cost: As the 2026 tournament nears, Mexico’s host cities are also spotlighting forced disappearances tied to cartel abductions, with advocates urging the world to look beyond matchday economics. Venezuela–India dealmaking: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez will visit India June 3–7 to push cooperation across energy, trade, investment, healthcare and renewables, holding talks with PM Modi. Payments & stablecoins: Mastercard is expanding settlement infrastructure to support on-chain settlement with regulated stablecoins and faster intraday processing, aiming to boost cross-border payments. Brazil port M&A: Macquarie and IG4 agreed to sell controlling stakes in Brazil’s CLI to AD Ports for $835m, targeting new Brazil–UAE trade routes. Colombia labor pressure: Ecopetrol’s main union USO starts a 24-hour strike over stalled collective bargaining talks, focusing on wages and labor rights. Crypto enforcement: The US Treasury sanctioned Iranian crypto exchanges including Nobitex, warning US firms not to provide services to designated platforms. US–Mexico border crackdown: Federal agents say a tunnel near the border moved $45m+ in cocaine, leading to arrests of four men. Tata–Chery EV pivot: Tata Motors plans to license Chery’s platform for premium EVs under its Avinya brand, with the first models targeted for 2027. Latin America banking/finance: Citi received approval to open a representative office in Guyana, signaling continued regional expansion.

U.S.-Brazil Compliance Shock: The U.S. designated Brazil’s PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorist groups, with FTO/SDGT steps that could raise legal and asset-blocking risk for any firm doing business tied to the gangs. Colombia Politics & Risk: Fear and violence are shaping the run-up to Colombia’s presidential runoff, with voters weighing security, extortion and fiscal strain. Argentina Trade Push: Argentina formalized its request to join the CPTPP, aiming to open new markets and boost private-sector competitiveness. Venezuela Energy Signaling: Delcy Rodríguez met the economic team and Hydrocarbons Engine and announced new oil-production contracts. Payments & Liquidity Tech: MANSA was recognized for cross-border settlement using stablecoin liquidity infrastructure across Africa and Latin America. Tourism & Connectivity: Avianca launched new nonstop flights between San Francisco and Guatemala City, adding direct access to Antigua and boosting Central America travel links. Climate & Weather Watch: UN/WMO warned El Niño has an 80% chance to develop June-August, increasing extreme heat and weather risks. Caribbean Finance Calendar: BVI Finance moved its Latin America roadshow to July (Lima, Bogotá, Panama City). Peru Security Costs: AP reports extortion and illegal gold mining are driving fear ahead of Peru’s runoff, with gangs exploiting weak enforcement.

Colombia Runoff Watch: Colombia’s presidential race is heading to a polarized runoff after a crime-focused candidate surprised in the first round, setting up a showdown between right-wing De la Espriella and leftist Cepeda—an outcome that could reshape policy, security, and investor sentiment. Brazil–U.S. Tensions: Brazil’s finance chief says the country will talk with the U.S. over threats to financial sovereignty as Washington designates Brazilian criminal groups as terrorist organizations, raising compliance and business risk. Caribbean Finance & Resilience: The Caribbean Development Bank and regional leaders push for stronger resilience planning as climate threats intensify, while a new arbitration/ADR training push aims to improve dispute resolution for investors across the Eastern Caribbean. Banking & Markets: Nigeria officially moved to a T+1 settlement cycle, cutting completion to one business day and aiming to boost liquidity and reduce counterparty risk. Payments/Fintech Talent: Yuno appoints Edwin Poot as CTO, signaling continued investment in merchant-focused financial infrastructure. Energy & Commodities: Venezuela’s delegation meets the IMF amid debt restructuring talks, and Colombia highlights untapped rare earth potential as global demand rises.

Mexico–U.S. Tensions: President Claudia Sheinbaum escalated rhetoric, saying far-right U.S. sectors are coordinating with domestic groups to “attack” her government amid tariff and immigration strains. Caribbean Development Finance: The Caribbean Development Bank will host top multilateral lenders in Nassau to debate how to adapt development finance for uncertain times. Caribbean Tourism & Brands: Rum tourism is shifting from a side attraction to a premium, story-driven growth engine as Caribbean arrivals keep rising. Aviation in the Region: ICAO’s North America, Central America and Caribbean civil aviation directors meet in Antigua to push safety, security, sustainability and cooperation. Fintech Momentum: A new report says global fintech revenues topped $500B and growth is outpacing traditional banks, with more public fintechs turning profitable. Caribbean Banking Deal: Butterfield’s $1.8B acquisition of CIBC Caribbean keeps reshaping regional financial footprints. Colombia Politics & Markets: Colombia’s presidential runoff is set between De La Espriella and Cepeda after a tight first round, keeping investors focused on policy direction. Venezuela–IMF Talks: A Venezuelan delegation met the IMF on technical assistance and recovery mechanisms as ties with multilateral lenders continue to reopen. Brazil Climate Tech: Brazil’s Copaíbas program is deploying real-time fire monitoring in conservation areas to cut response times and protect ecosystems. World Cup Economics: Argentina World Cup travel costs are high for fans, while FIFA’s India broadcast deal with Zee closes a major rights gap.

Colombia Election: Abelardo de la Espriella (“El Tigre”) and Iván Cepeda will face off in a June 21 runoff after a tight first round, with the result setting up a polarized fight over security and Petro-era reforms. Caribbean Tourism & Finance: Caribbean Week in New York kicks off with top tourism ministers and commissioners, spotlighting regional resilience and investment priorities for the travel economy. Brazil Health Watch: Brazil is investigating suspected Ebola cases in São Paulo and Rio after travelers returned from the DRC and Uganda, as health authorities also track the wider outbreak in eastern DRC. Rare Earths Investment: USA Rare Earth says it plans to expand its France operations, potentially exceeding €175m through 2030 to build more of the mine-to-magnet supply chain. Banking/Deals (Caribbean): Butterfield’s planned acquisition of CIBC Caribbean remains a key regional banking story, with deal momentum drawing investor attention. Crypto Regulation: Brazil’s central bank is pushing stricter independent audits for VASPs as the crypto compliance push continues. Tech/AI Infrastructure: Bull and Foxconn announce a strategic collaboration to manufacture AI and cloud infrastructure in Europe, aiming to strengthen “sovereign AI” capacity. Market Signals: A global video surveillance market forecast points to rapid growth, reflecting continued public and private spending on security systems.

Colombia Election Watch: Colombians vote in a tight presidential race that could force a runoff, with Ivan Cepeda leading polls on a left agenda of social reforms and peace talks, while right-wing Paloma Valencia and independent Abelardo de la Espriella split the anti-left vote—investors will be watching security, fiscal discipline, and health spending promises. Pensions in Focus: A key campaign battleground is whether Colombia raises the retirement age after Petro’s 2024 pension reform left it unchanged (57 women/62 men), raising fresh fiscal sustainability pressure as the population ages. Caribbean Connectivity: St Kitts and Nevis faces an airline gap after Caribbean Airlines withdrew from a route without consulting the government; officials say talks with another carrier are underway, a reminder that transport policy can quickly hit tourism and cashflow. Payments & Trade: Mexico and Russia plan talks on SWIFT alternatives to reduce trade friction and settlement barriers, with agricultural cooperation on the agenda. Dominican Monetary Policy: The central bank kept rates at 5.25% amid anchored medium-term inflation expectations, citing fuel-driven supply shocks. EM Debt Flows: Bloomberg reports distressed-debt hedge funds are turning away new capital as emerging-market cash piles in, making it harder to deploy money without moving prices.

Caribbean Banking Expansion: Citi won Bank of Guyana approval to open a representative office in Georgetown, aiming to deepen support for infrastructure and export financing as Guyana’s economy accelerates. Colombia Election Watch: With Colombia voting Sunday, polls point to a likely runoff on June 21 between Iván Cepeda (left, tied to Petro’s agenda) and Abelardo de la Espriella (right, aligned with Trump/Bukele-style messaging), while Paloma Valencia remains a distant third. Venezuela Oil Tech Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez inaugurated a PDVSA data and technology center to consolidate sovereign oil and gas information, boost automation and cybersecurity, and apply AI to maintenance and operations. Mexico Security & Religion: A CSW report warns Mexico’s religious freedom is being undermined by gangs and local customs, with threats and violence disrupting church activity. World Cup Finance & Risk: Ahead of the 2026 tournament, scammers are targeting fans with fake tickets and AI-driven phishing, while Mexico’s environmental permitting already forced Royal Caribbean to scrap a major water-park plan. Gold Miners Margin Pressure: Gold prices may stay firm, but miners face higher structural costs (labor, energy, geology), keeping margin pressure in focus for 2026.

Banking & M&A: CIBC agreed to sell its Caribbean business for about $1.6bn to Butterfield Bank, with CIBC taking a 22% stake and board seats—another consolidation move in regional banking. USMCA Watch: Mexico’s lower house approved an amendment to annul elections over foreign interference, while US negotiators are pushing for higher North American vehicle content to qualify for USMCA tariff benefits—raising stakes for auto supply chains. Geopolitics & Risk: The US designated Brazil’s PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorist groups, triggering backlash in Brasília and fears of wider external pressure. Brazil Macro: Brazil’s economy rebounded in Q1, growing 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, supported by consumption and investment. Crypto & Compliance: Coinbase expanded its TRUST Travel Rule network, adding BNY and partnering with 21 Analytics to scale institutional interoperability. Energy & Infrastructure: Vizhinjam port in Kerala hit 2m TEUs in 18 months, underscoring the value of resilient maritime routes as shipping faces geopolitical strain. Tourism & Real Assets: Antigua welcomed a $200m Long Bay Zen luxury resort project, signaling continued high-end tourism investment in the Caribbean.

Caribbean Banking Deal: Butterfield Bank agreed to buy CIBC Caribbean in a US$1.8bn transaction, with no immediate operational changes promised and a combined platform targeting expanded wealth and banking services across the region. Colombia Election Watch: Colombia heads to the polls Sunday with an unprecedented security posture—246,000 security personnel and alerts across 386 municipalities—amid concerns about political violence and deep polarization. Brazil Macro: Brazil’s economy grew 1.1% in Q1 2026 (1.8% year-on-year), led by consumption and investment, while exports fell and imports rose. Mexico Governance Risk: Mexico’s senate passed a constitutional amendment allowing election annulments on “foreign interference,” drawing sharp criticism over how broadly the term could be used. Chile Infrastructure: Chile approved a US$4.45bn expansion of the Port of San Antonio, set to triple cargo capacity. Energy & Power: ContourGlobal started commercial operations on a solar-plus-storage project in Chile with a 200MW, 6.5-hour battery and a power purchase agreement with Copec EMOAC. Banking Expansion (US): Scotiabank moves to expand its US mortgage reach by buying a Texas bank, aiming to fund independent mortgage lenders.

Caribbean AML Push: Guyana’s AG Anil Nandlall urged tougher AML/CFT enforcement across the region, calling for better judicial training after low conviction rates weaken anti-money laundering systems. Cross-Border Security Pact: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Peru signed the Santiago Regional Compact to coordinate against transnational organized crime, aiming to expand the model across the Americas. Caribbean Banking Deal: Butterfield agreed to acquire control of CIBC Caribbean in a landmark US$1.8b transaction, a major consolidation move for regional financial services. Crypto Compliance Upgrade: Coinbase expanded its TRUST network with TRUSThub, adding broader global Travel Rule connectivity and BNY participation, alongside automation partners like 21 Analytics. Mexico Electoral Rules: Mexico’s lower house approved a constitutional amendment to nullify elections over foreign interference, pending Senate approval. Tourism Momentum: New WTTC data shows Central & South America’s travel and tourism set to outpace the global average in 2026, with Mexico leading North America in 2025 growth. Lithium Drilling Watch: Solis Minerals secured a US$6m placement to fund lithium drilling in Brazil, while Galan Lithium advanced Argentina’s Hombre Muerto West commissioning toward first concentrate sales.