AGP Executive Report

U.S.-Colombia reset: Marco Rubio kicked off a Colombia-Ecuador-Peru tour promising to “restore” ties with Bogota and deepen security and economic cooperation after years of friction, with a clear push to expand the minerals and critical-security agenda. Minerals vs. rights: In the Amazon and other mining frontiers, the same push is raising alarms about violence against environmental defenders, as governments sign deals that speed up permitting and financing for extraction. Ecuador crackdown: Rubio also announced the U.S. designation of Ecuador’s Los Tiguerones gang as a foreign terrorist organization and pledged $45m in new counternarcotics support. Argentina risk outlook: A new scenario analysis says Argentina’s country risk could fall sharply if Milei wins reelection, while a defeat could send it soaring—moving bond upside/downside expectations. AI finance in LatAm: Mexico City’s Kapital secured $125m to expand its AI-driven lending model, reporting strong loan and deposit growth alongside a still-manageable non-performing loan ratio. Cyber risk in LatAm: Check Point flagged rising attacks and phishing, with Latin America showing the highest average attack volume among regions. Brazil court power struggle: Brazil’s Supreme Court judge Flávio Dino reinstated senior federal police officials, escalating an internal dispute tied to the Banco Master case. Panama-China tension: Panamanian lawmakers accused China of interfering in National Assembly decisions after Beijing rejected a proposed parliamentary exchange with Taiwan.

Digital Payments & Inclusion: Visa and the IFC launched a risk-sharing initiative to expand digital payments in emerging markets, targeting about $200M of risk sharing over five years with an initial focus on 14 Latin America and Caribbean countries. Fintech Expansion: Kapital raised $125M from Tru Arrow Partners and Fasanara Capital to deepen its AI platform and data analytics, aiming to scale B2B financial services across Mexico, the U.S. and beyond. Payments Infrastructure for Agentic Commerce: IXOPAY rolled out an “Agentic Suite” to help merchants connect AI-driven buying to existing payment rails while preserving transaction context. U.S.-Colombia Reset: Marco Rubio met Colombia’s new president in Barranquilla and outlined “Barranquilla Agreements” focused on security and investment to restore ties after years of friction. Energy & Investment: Chevron plans to boost Venezuela output to 600,000 bpd by 2031, while Brazil’s tax reform is already reshaping logistics networks and distribution-center locations. Security Tech: Reports highlight drones becoming a faster, cross-border weapon in Latin America, pushing governments to accelerate counter-drone capabilities.

US-Colombia reset: Marco Rubio kicked off a three-country Latin America tour, meeting Colombia’s new president in Barranquilla and pushing “good, solid” trade deals plus deeper security cooperation, with a clear anti-cartel message and plans to expand U.S. military involvement. Venezuela resources push: The Trump administration is seeking greater access to Venezuela’s mineral wealth (including gold), with possible steps like an executive order and talks with companies—aimed at drawing investment and countering China’s influence. Food inflation risk: FAO data shows global food prices rose to the highest since late 2022 as weather shocks and Middle East/Black Sea disruptions lift grain and sugar prices—raising the risk premium that can hit LatAm staples. Digital trade growth: An IDB/WTO/World Bank report says digitally delivered services exports in Latin America and the Caribbean nearly quintupled since 2005, reaching about $90B in online trade and highlighting policy needs to unlock more growth. Argentina energy investment: YPF projects $154.1B in investments under RIGI through 2040, signaling a major push in LNG and broader energy expansion. Bolivia political risk: A real-life “narconovela” case around Bolivia’s attempted assassination of lawyer Nadia Beller spotlights how right-wing political networks and violence can spill into governance and stability.

Digital Banking Awards: FirstBank (Puerto Rico) won four Global Finance World’s Best Consumer Digital Banks awards, including Best Consumer Digital Banking App and Best UX Design in Latin America, highlighting its Tu Banca Digital platform. Venezuela Resources Push: Reuters reports the Trump administration is seeking more U.S. access to Venezuela’s critical minerals (including gold), with possible steps like an executive order and talks with companies—expanding beyond oil. Payments & Funding: Félix, a WhatsApp remittance platform, secured $200M Series C (a16z equity plus General Catalyst debt), reinforcing LatAm cross-border payments momentum. Cloud Expansion: NowVertical expanded its Google Cloud practice into Brazil, adding local delivery capability for data modernization and enterprise AI. Crypto Custody Shake-up: Tether-backed Orionx shut down after an audit flagged a $7M custody gap. Energy & Trade: Brazil’s oil exports hit record highs as China demand rises amid Middle East supply disruptions. Geopolitics Watch: A U.S.-Venezuela oil deal is framed as a modern Monroe Doctrine, with 100-year concessions and U.S. purchase rights.

Venezuela Oil Push: GeoPark is buying into the Orinoco Belt via a 25-year PDVSA contract for the Bare Block, targeting a jump to 70,000–83,000 boepd and lifting recovery factors to 8%–9%, as Washington pressures the sector to reopen. Venezuela Energy Investment: Eni also signed a 25-year agreement for Junin 5, with plans to invest $1.5B annually and expand output after years of stalled work tied to sanctions and payment disputes. Mexico Electoral Integrity: President Claudia Sheinbaum said she’ll defend Mexico’s electoral system after Gustavo Petro’s warnings about foreign right-wing social media influence, stressing INE autonomy and that vote counting is handled by polling-station citizens. Airline Dealflow: The US FTC cleared the Volaris–Viva Aerobus merger for early termination of its waiting period, but Mexico’s antitrust authority still has the final say. LatAm Payments & Crypto Rails: Fipto joined Circle Payments Network as an originating financial institution, aiming to route stablecoin-funded payouts from Europe to new Latin America and Asia markets via local currency rails. Commodities Watch: Copper futures near record highs as US buyers pull record seaborne volumes and Chile weather tightens supply guidance. Diesel Tightness: The Americas face peak diesel season with thin inventories and a global supply deficit, raising pressure for Brazil and the US. Critical Minerals Strategy: India is sending KABIL to explore Colombia’s critical minerals and rare earths while ONGC Videsh deepens energy ties, reflecting a push to diversify supply chains. Bitcoin Adoption (El Salvador): El Salvador marks five years since making Bitcoin legal tender, highlighting a strategic reserve plus public-sector training and “Bitcoin Zones.”

AI + Data Centers in LatAm: Tech firms are scouting Argentina’s windswept Patagonia for massive AI data centers, drawn by cool temperatures, renewables, and nearby power from Vaca Muerta—while projects are still early enough to avoid the backlash seen in the US. Energy & Infrastructure: Colombia’s seismic services market gets a boost as Vector Geophysical buys 30,000 STRYDE Halo-Connect nodes to expand high-density surveys for faster exploration. Payments & Fintech: SQRIL says it’s now enabling banks and neobanks to let users scan-and-pay local QR codes across Asia, Africa, and Latin America in home currency, aiming at cheaper cross-border rails. Sovereign Debt Watch: A new debt-sustainability focus is returning as borrowing costs rise and investors revisit the risk of renewed sovereign stress. FDI in Paraguay: Paraguay’s foreign investment mix is widening beyond traditional sectors, with real estate, trade, transport, and telecoms leading the latest wave. Crypto Caution: A market note warns crypto’s calm may mask fragile liquidity and a potential breakout risk. Corporate/Capital Markets: Citi issues a tokenized structured note bought by Banco do Brasil, signaling continued momentum in LatAm tokenized finance.

Markets & Rates: Latin American equities eased as a stronger US jobs report revived Fed rate-hike bets, pushing up the dollar and cooling risk appetite, though the region stayed on track for weekly gains as oil prices firmed. Cross-Border Payments: The ECB and Brazil’s central bank are assessing a link between Europe’s TIPS instant-payment system and Brazil’s Pix, with a pilot discussed as soon as 2028. Panama Infrastructure: Tocumen Airport will invest about $306.75M in Terminal 2 expansion and airfield modernization to boost capacity and improve runways/taxiways. Venezuela Oil Dispute: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright denied the Trump administration is “stealing” Venezuela’s oil, arguing the deal increases royalties and taxes for Venezuela. Crypto Risk in Chile: Tether-backed Orionx shut down after a forensic audit found a $7M+ custody shortfall, suspending withdrawals for 100,000+ users. OPEC on Oil Prices: OPEC’s Haitham al-Ghais said the priority is market stability, not steering prices, amid supply-route concerns. Local Business (Food): A Colombian operator in Utah and Wyoming is betting on plantain-focused restaurants, aiming at a niche underserved in the US.

Crypto & Regulation: Chilean crypto exchange Orionx is permanently shutting down after a forensic audit found a $7m+ custody shortfall; withdrawals are suspended while it prepares restitution, and the firm says it moved assets to wallets it didn’t control, after Tether backed its Series A and Chile’s regulator previously rejected its authorization. AI & Industrial Policy: China unveiled a plan to cultivate 10,000+ AI-focused SMEs by 2028, including incubators, “little giant” support, and low-cost computing for early-stage ventures. Oil Markets & Energy Risk: OPEC’s secretary general said stabilizing global oil markets is the priority and not about price manipulation, while Malaysia’s economic adviser warned oil prices may stay elevated for 2–3 years amid geopolitical shipping disruptions. Mobility & Fintech Safety: Yango Ride reported a 31% drop in grave traffic violations and sharp declines in post-trip contacts in Peru and Colombia after privacy and anti-fraud upgrades. Latin America Macro: UBS raised its Panama growth forecast to 5%+ for 2026, citing construction, tourism, and Canal-related activity alongside improved fiscal accounts. Geopolitics Watch: Argentina’s Milei escalated the Falklands/Malvinas oil-drilling fight with a bill to toughen sanctions, as public support signals the issue remains politically combustible.

Dollar Power & Emerging-Market Exposure: A new piece argues the US dollar’s reserve role leaves countries exposed to Federal Reserve decisions they can’t influence, reshaping reserve values and global pricing. Falklands Oil & Argentina Politics: Argentines back Javier Milei’s tougher stance on sanctions against firms drilling near the Falklands, with a bill and a proposed national security council in the spotlight. BRICS Payments Push: BRICS is reportedly discussing cross-border payment links, including digital payment systems and CBDC-related ideas, to reduce reliance on correspondent-banking chains. Venezuela Oil Deal Fallout: Coverage highlights the US taking a stake in Venezuela-linked oil arrangements and the broader geopolitical and investment implications. Caribbean/LatAm Tourism: Puerto Rico was named “International Guest Destination of Honor” for ANATO 2027, aiming to deepen Colombia ties and tourism deals. Security & Finance Risk: Spain seized 3.36 tonnes of cocaine off Gran Canaria in a high-speed chase, underscoring how trafficking routes keep shifting. Mobility & Payments: Uber’s planned Delivery Hero/Glovo acquisition could bring it back to Nigeria via delivery, pending regulators.

Venezuela Energy Deal: The U.S. is taking a 35% passive stake in Venezuela’s oil via a deal tied to Alejandro Betancourt’s North American Blue Energy Partners, with preferential purchase rights for production—another major step in Washington’s push to reshape the region’s energy map. Geopolitics & China: Analysts warn the deeper U.S. involvement could complicate China’s Venezuela strategy, especially around repayment of billions in Chinese policy-bank loans as new U.S.-backed projects ramp output. Oil Market Signals: Chinese refiners are paying record premiums for Russian ESPO crude as Middle East supply disruptions tighten and Iranian barrels slow, highlighting how quickly trade flows can flip. Crypto & Fintech: Félix raised $200M to expand stablecoin remittances and Cari secured $32.5M for a tokenized deposit network—bank-backed rails keep attracting capital. UN Cartography: The UN General Assembly backed a new world map using Equal Earth, passing 164–1 to better reflect Africa’s size, with the U.S. the lone no vote. Corporate Moves (LatAm-linked): Tata Motors launched its Iveco tender at €14.1/share, a reminder that cross-border industrial deals remain active alongside LatAm policy shifts.

Venezuela Oil & US Power Play: The US-Venezuela oil deal is drawing fresh backlash as analysts warn it could reshape energy flows while deepening geopolitical leverage—especially with China’s exposure to Venezuelan revenue in focus. Payments & Fintech: The ECB is exploring a link between its instant payments system and Brazil’s Pix, with a possible pilot in 2028—another step toward cross-border rails for LatAm. Capital Markets (Digital Assets): Banco do Brasil bought a Citi tokenized structured note via a digital-asset issuance channel, signaling growing comfort with tokenized instruments in LatAm’s mainstream banking. Corporate Risk & Governance: Brazil’s chief risk officers are gaining influence as regulation and ESG pressure push more firms to formalize risk management functions. Local Development: Belize City officials joined the IDB Mayors Forum in Barranquilla to discuss public services, trust, and resilient urban investment. Workforce Stress: A Puerto Rico workplace mental-health study ties weak emergency savings to higher vulnerability, with financial stress flagged as a key driver. Travel & Trade: Hilton named a new area president for the Caribbean and Latin America, underscoring continued investment in the region’s hospitality sector.

US-Venezuela Energy Deal: The latest US-Venezuela oil pact gives Washington direct operational access to Venezuela’s vast reserves, reshaping energy security and raising fresh questions on sovereignty and investor risk. Mexico Governance: Mexico moves to bar dual nationals from top government roles, including governorships and the presidency, tightening nationality rules for senior leadership. Fintech Banking: Revolut clears a key US hurdle with conditional OCC approval for a national bank charter, targeting a 2027 launch and expanding banking plus stablecoin access. Digital Finance in LatAm: Banco do Brasil makes a first-of-its-kind $5m digitally native structured note investment with Citi via Euroclear’s blockchain-based rails. EVs vs Fuel Demand (Brazil): Electrified vehicles are starting to dent gasoline and ethanol demand in Brazil, with Citi expecting the decline to accelerate over time. Energy Storage Expansion (LatAm): Norvento Enerxía plans to scale utility-scale storage across Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Mexico and Guatemala. Air Connectivity: Air Canada announces major 2027 route growth, including new services tied to Latin America and Europe. Tourism Economy (Mexico): Mexico ranks 4th globally for tourism GDP impact and leisure spending, spotlighting Cancún and the Riviera Maya. Critical Minerals Policy: A new focus on processing and supply-chain control is reshaping where investment flows for battery and rare-earth materials.

Venezuela Energy & Geopolitics: Eni signed a strategic operatorship deal with PDVSA for the Junín 5 heavy-oil field, while Chevron said it will double output to 600,000 bpd by 2031—another sign the U.S.-Venezuela oil reset is reshaping investment and regional leverage. Payments & Fintech: Bybit Pay integrated with Mesh, letting users spend or top up using exchange balances directly at checkout across Mesh-connected merchants and apps, cutting out extra transfers and conversions. Sovereign Debt Rules: A new commentary lays out how “Preferred Creditor Status” should work for IFIs and regional MDBs, aiming to clarify creditor hierarchy and comparability in restructurings. Metals Supply-Chain Pressure: The Copper Mark says buyers are demanding full traceability and responsible value chains beyond mine sites, turning transparency into a commercial requirement. Brazil Trade Shock: The EU’s suspension of Brazilian meat imports over antibiotic concerns took effect, putting exporters on alert as the bloc demands stronger guarantees. Regional AI Governance: Jamaica’s minister urged CARICOM to coordinate AI rules so the region can influence standards affecting public services and citizens. Brazil Critical Minerals: Brazil’s Senate approved a rare-earths framework to boost domestic processing and funding—an attempt to reduce dependence on China. Mobility Safety: Yango reported a 38% drop in reckless-driving incidents across Africa after updated speed-control and driving-style tools, with Cameroon events planned for September.

Venezuela Energy Deal: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright oversaw “tens of billions” in new Venezuela oil agreements with Chevron and Eni, as Caracas pushes output ramp-ups and the US moves to take partial control of reserves—raising fresh questions on contract transparency and regional oil market impact. Cybercrime & Payments: Brazil’s Breeze Comet gang reportedly infiltrated financial systems to trigger fraudulent transfers via payment infrastructure, a warning that the same playbook could spread beyond LatAm. Digital Dollar Expansion: Colombian fintech Plenti raised $3m seed led by Tether to expand its USDT-based digital dollar platform across Peru and Bolivia, betting on stablecoin liquidity growth. Remittances Upgrade: Miami startup Félix raised $200m to expand WhatsApp-based remittances settled in USDC, aiming to cut costs and speed up cross-border transfers for Latinos. Brazil Data Center Tax Incentives: Brazil’s Senate approved Redata, a special tax regime for data centers that ties benefits to renewable or low-emission power supply—aimed at pulling more digital infrastructure investment. Brazil Election Watch: Reuters reports Lula is running a unusually cautious campaign ahead of October voting, with tighter controls on state messaging to avoid misinformation and legal missteps. Healthcare in Brazil: Cellgenic expanded local commercial representation and physician support in Brazil to back product distribution in permitted channels. Fashion Deal Ends: Arezzo&Co and Soma will split after their merger plan unraveled, ending a two-and-a-half-year attempt to build a major LatAm fashion platform.

Venezuela Energy Deal: Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodríguez says a new binational oil accord targets 1.5 million b/d from 17 fields over 25 years, with claims of $100B+ investment and $209B+ in tax revenue—while Chevron moves to expand in the Orinoco Belt after the U.S. access announcement. Cross-Border Payments: Félix Pago raised $200M (a16z-led equity plus a General Catalyst credit facility) to scale WhatsApp-based remittances and add lending and savings for Latinos in the U.S. LNG & Commodities: U.S. LNG exports averaged 23% higher in 1H26, supported by new capacity and higher global prices after Hormuz disruptions. Banking/Fintech Risk: Brazil banks face AI-assisted malware activity tied to fraudulent transfers, underscoring rising cyber threats for financial institutions. Trade & Investment: El Salvador used the Japan–LAC Business Forum to push new B2B sales and investment talks, aiming to attract Asian capital via nearshoring. Corporate Governance: Altera added two board directors as it enters its next growth phase after separation from Intel. Regional Policy: CARICOM urged coordinated AI governance across the Caribbean to shape rules that fit local needs. Payments Tech (Crypto): USDT0 launched on Stellar, aiming to improve cross-border settlement for emerging-market users.

Venture & Fintech: Felix Pago raised $200m to expand beyond remittances into lending and savings for Latin American immigrants in the U.S., using a WhatsApp “Cognitive Financial Companion” model. Energy Finance: Odyssey Energy Solutions secured $74m (equity + debt) to scale distributed renewables across Africa, Asia and Latin America, linking thousands of installers/EPCs to project capital. Markets & Rates: Brazil stocks and the real gained as investors priced a tighter presidential race, pulling down long-end rates and the DI curve. Telecom & Infrastructure: Brazil launched an electronic temporary visa system (VITEM) for travelers from visa-exempt countries, moving more consular processing online. Corporate/Compliance: Honda is pushing suppliers for $9bn+ in cost cuts by 2030 as Chinese EV price pressure spreads globally. Geopolitics & Trade: Paraguay’s ambassador to Israel says beef exports to Israel jumped to $220m in 2025 and could reach ~$300m in 2026, with trade supported by sustained diplomatic outreach. Climate/Resilience: El Niño conditions are worsening hunger risk, with 60m people threatened across regions including parts of Latin America and the Caribbean.